169 replies to this topic

[oberhaus]

I'm guessing PH would be 1 or 2 if they win out....right?

[jeffcat-bucki]

oberhaus, on 09 October 2013 - 11:45 AM, said:

I'm guessing PH would be 1 or 2 if they win out....right?

Keeping the remainder of all the other games constant(the crapload of 2nd level of points), PH would be at 22.5000~, so yes, #1 seed if they went 9-1, with Bryan and Wauseon losing no other games.

[brunowball]

Ada is a toss-up for me. They have to win one against either Jefferson, LCC, or Crestview - all on the road. I think they have the talent to beat all 3 but have been inconsistent at times that it's quite possible they lose all 3. This week against Crestview is huge.

[ADog]

brunowball, on 09 October 2013 - 02:20 PM, said:

Ada is a toss-up for me. They have to win one against either Jefferson, LCC, or Crestview - all on the road. I think they have the talent to beat all 3 but have been inconsistent at times that it's quite possible they lose all 3. This week against Crestview is huge.

Ada has slowly been getting better each week with their offense. Scores may not show it, but you can see it as the plays are crisper and more defined each week. Being the optimist, they are starting to jell and have not reached their peak yet. The thing is Ada is more balanced this year on offense, but keep working on the pass which has been and will be their bread and butter. They will be peaking at the right time. I will go out on a limb and say they win at least 2 of the 3 games you mention.

[jeffcat-bucki]

I mentioned Bluffton in another thread. Having seen them play, I thought they had an impressive team that could cause some headaches. I predict them to go 6-4, BUT if they would just so happen to upset LCC, not only would it knock LCC out, but Bluffton would effectively swap spots and get in at the #7 seed with 13.4500 points according to my predictions if they went 7-3.

[Mr Bearcat]

So you don't see Spencerville getting in?

[several]

Here is my projected Top 15. I have done this for many, many years, long before you could get results on the internet and before Joe Eitel and Bruce Monnin were publishing on the web. All I can say is that these numbers change every week as there are always upsets and some games are pick 'ems where either team has a legitimate chance to win. I have assumed WT to win out, Ada to win out except for LCC, DJ to win out except for Ada, LCC win out, PH lose to Bryan, Tinora lose to WT, Seneca East win out, Ayersville lose to Tinora, Crestview lose to Ada, Northwood win out, Col Crawford lose to Wynford and Upper, Woodmore lose to Genoa, Spencerville lose to Crestview and DJ and Carey losing to Seneca East. So you can see here where I have made some different assumptions than what Jeffcat has and this doesn't count the secondary games.

1

WAYNE TRACE

20.100

2

ADA

19.050

3

JEFFERSON

18.550

4

LCC

18.100

5

PATRICK HENRY

17.000

6

TINORA

15.500

7

SENECA EAST

13.850

8

AYERSVILLE

13.350

9

CON CRESTVIEW

13.250

10

NORTHWOOD

12.750

11

COL. CRAWFORD

11.250

12

WOODMORE

10.650

13

SPENCERVILLE

10.250

14

CAREY

10.100

15

WYNFORD

9.800

Jeffcat, Joe Eitel has Tinora's opponent, Hillsdale, as a D5 so their last two wins would net 9.0 not 8.0. The size of the schools Hillsdale plays does not matter for out of state teams.

[ADog]

Mr Bearcat, on 10 October 2013 - 01:35 PM, said:

So you don't see Spencerville getting in?

He has Spencerville losing 3 of the last 4 to arrive at his projections( and the 1 win against a sub .500 team) Spencerville is suffering from lack of 2nd level points as the teams they beat are not helping much. I am not a numbers guy and will not even pretend to be, but I think they need to win 3 of the last 4 to get in to get some good 2nd level points.

[jeffcat-bucki]

several, on 10 October 2013 - 04:19 PM, said:

Jeffcat, Joe Eitel has Tinora's opponent, Hillsdale, as a D5 so their last two wins would net 9.0 not 8.0. The size of the schools Hillsdale plays does not matter for out of state teams.

So how does Hillsdale's wins over say Ida(MI) for example count? How do they determine the point totals in terms of 2nd level points if Hillsdale beats Ida?

[brunowball]

jeffcat-bucki, on 10 October 2013 - 10:38 PM, said:

So how does Hillsdale's wins over say Ida(MI) for example count? How do they determine the point totals in terms of 2nd level points if Hillsdale beats Ida?

Every game that Hillsdale wins will be worth 4.5 2nd level points since they are a D5 school. Regardless of what division Ida or any other school is in.

[jeffcat-bucki]

brunowball, on 11 October 2013 - 10:13 AM, said:

Every game that Hillsdale wins will be worth 4.5 2nd level points since they are a D5 school. Regardless of what division Ida or any other school is in.

Well that's pretty screwed up, but I can understand some of the reasoning for doing it, as it's a a nightmare to figure enrollments out of state.

[calvert_alum]

Hopewell and SE end up going down tonight. SE missed an XP to tie the game at Mohawk with 0:10 remaining. Mohawk then scored on an onside kick.

[CKUM]

Crestview put a butt-whipping on Ada 63-12. Knights put themselves in good position heading into week 8. Anything can happen, but they are playing some pretty good football right now.

[ADog]

CKUM, on 11 October 2013 - 10:05 PM, said:

Crestview put a butt-whipping on Ada 63-12. Knights put themselves in good position heading into week 8. Anything can happen, but they are playing some pretty good football right now.

You can say that again. Great game plan tonight. Ada sideline had no answer(s) tonight and were clearly out smarted...Great Game Knights

[jeffcat-bucki]

calvert_alum, on 11 October 2013 - 09:51 PM, said:

Hopewell and SE end up going down tonight. SE missed an XP to tie the game at Mohawk with 0:10 remaining. Mohawk then scored on an onside kick.

Seneca East losing really puts a hurt on their playoff chances. On the other side, it opens up another spot for somebody else. Let the ladder race begin.

[calvert_alum]

jeffcat-bucki, on 11 October 2013 - 10:46 PM, said:

Seneca East losing really puts a hurt on their playoff chances. On the other side, it opens up another spot for somebody else. Let the ladder race begin.

In my honest opinion, SE and HL were eliminated from the playoffs with losses tonight. Carey might be the only MAL team who can make the top 8 in this region, but even that is a tall task.

Edited by calvert_alum, 11 October 2013 - 10:53 PM.

[Bluetiger76]

calvert_alum, on 11 October 2013 - 10:53 PM, said:

In my honest opinion, SE and HL were eliminated from the playoffs with losses tonight. Carey might be the only MAL team who can make the top 8 in this region, but even that is a tall task.

What about Mohawk....if they run the table?

[jeffcat-bucki]

Bluetiger76, on 11 October 2013 - 11:00 PM, said:

What about Mohawk....if they run the table?

Mohawk is D7 R24.

[jeffcat-bucki]

calvert_alum, on 11 October 2013 - 10:53 PM, said:

In my honest opinion, SE and HL were eliminated from the playoffs with losses tonight. Carey might be the only MAL team who can make the top 8 in this region, but even that is a tall task.

The real question is if Carey can get by both Hopewell and Seneca East. I think they beat Hopewell, but I had them losing to SE. I can only go off of transitive comparison games in which SE beat Calvert and Calvert stomped Carey.

[Bluetiger76]

jeffcat-bucki, on 11 October 2013 - 11:02 PM, said:

Mohawk is D7 R24.

Duh....didnt read his post very well did I. Thx!