169 replies to this topic

[cropduster]

Best of luck predicting who gets in ! Lots of good teams

[ADog]

cropduster, on 17 September 2013 - 01:00 PM, said:

Best of luck predicting who gets in ! Lots of good teams

Agree...going into week 4, there are 7 teams still undefeated with only 1 of those guaranteed to lose their 1st game this week(loser of WT/Ayersville) This region will go down to the wire this season on who gets in and who doesn't. Right now WT is in the driver seat and with a good season from Ostego, they should continue their hold on the top spot.

[jeffcat-bucki]

Wayne Trace is a lock already.

Everybody else is a bit unclear, especially with the 6 NWC schools + LCC since they all play each other therefore control their own destiny obviously.

Tinora has a good shot depending if they finish 8-2 or better.

Big games this week.

-Patrick Henry playing D5 Liberty Center. Patrick Henry might encounter some tougher teams than usual considering Bryan's recent success and Wauseon looks tougher this year....and there is always Archbold as well.

-Colonel Crawford playing D4 Galion. They lost this game last year and Wynford torched them last year. Win or lose, it's huge playoffs points for them...probably makes them into the playoffs if they just win this weekend and avoid disaster later in the season.

-Lakota playing Calvert...not sure what to make of this Lakota team...heard they are improved, but Calvert beat them last year. Calvert is 0-3, but they played some tougher games.

-Woodmore playing Eastwood. I think Eastwood wins this one, and I think Woodmore loses more games later in the season which will probably knock them out, but hey that's why they play the game.

It's still early so there are plenty of teams, even down to 1-2 Wynford, who is 4th from last in the region that could make it in.

[Bluetiger76]

jeffcat-bucki, on 17 September 2013 - 01:31 PM, said:

Wayne Trace is a lock already.

Everybody else is a bit unclear, especially with the 6 NWC schools + LCC since they all play each other therefore control their own destiny obviously.

JMO......but I got to believe LCC is a lock as well.

[jeffcat-bucki]

Drew Pasteur's projections. I'm not far off from his aside from Colonel Crawford. He has them going 8-2 and I think they go 6-4. Even at 7-3, they will have a hard time getting in. I would think it would boil down to what would occur with Hopewell and Carey. Nobody has talked much about Carey...is it unrealistic to think they could finish the year 8-2?...they might be hosting a 1st rd game if they do.

Region 20 Projections
1) Wayne Trace (Haviland) (10-0) 21.10
2) Jefferson (Delphos) (9-1) 18.25
3) Tinora (Defiance) (8-2) 16.05
4) Ada (7-3) 15.10
5) Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) (8-2) 14.45
6) Crestview (Convoy) (7-3) 14.30
7) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (7-3) 14.25
8) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (6-3) 14.00

Wayne Trace and Tinora are both locks, so that leaves 6 positions open.

[redbird]

jeffcat-bucki, on 02 October 2013 - 09:46 AM, said:

Drew Pasteur's projections. I'm not far off from his aside from Colonel Crawford. He has them going 8-2 and I think they go 6-4. Even at 7-3, they will have a hard time getting in. I would think it would boil down to what would occur with Hopewell and Carey. Nobody has talked much about Carey...is it unrealistic to think they could finish the year 8-2?...they might be hosting a 1st rd game if they do.

Region 20 Projections
1) Wayne Trace (Haviland) (10-0) 21.10
2) Jefferson (Delphos) (9-1) 18.25
3) Tinora (Defiance) (8-2) 16.05
4) Ada (7-3) 15.10
5) Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) (8-2) 14.45
6) Crestview (Convoy) (7-3) 14.30
7) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (7-3) 14.25
8) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (6-3) 14.00

Wayne Trace and Tinora are both locks, so that leaves 6 positions open.

Does he have predictions on D7

[jeffcat-bucki]

redbird, on 02 October 2013 - 11:37 AM, said:

Does he have predictions on D7

Yep.
http://www.fantastic50.net/

[brunowball]

jeffcat-bucki, on 02 October 2013 - 09:46 AM, said:

Drew Pasteur's projections. I'm not far off from his aside from Colonel Crawford. He has them going 8-2 and I think they go 6-4. Even at 7-3, they will have a hard time getting in. I would think it would boil down to what would occur with Hopewell and Carey. Nobody has talked much about Carey...is it unrealistic to think they could finish the year 8-2?...they might be hosting a 1st rd game if they do.

Region 20 Projections
1) Wayne Trace (Haviland) (10-0) 21.10
2) Jefferson (Delphos) (9-1) 18.25
3) Tinora (Defiance) (8-2) 16.05
4) Ada (7-3) 15.10
5) Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) (8-2) 14.45
6) Crestview (Convoy) (7-3) 14.30
7) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (7-3) 14.25
8) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (6-3) 14.00

Wayne Trace and Tinora are both locks, so that leaves 6 positions open.

I don't understand his projections.

Using Jefferson for example, he has them projected at 9-1, yet has them projected to win every game the rest of the year by at least 10. LCC is projected to go 7-3 but he as them winning out which would make them 8-2.

WT, Tinora, & Jefferson are pretty much locked in. Ada could go anywhere from 9-1 to 6-4. Should be at least 7-3 as long as they can knock off Jefferson, LCC, or Crestview. 6-4 isn't that unlikely.

Carey could go 8-2. I think with Wynford being down a little Colonel Crawford can go 8-2. 6-4 is probably unlikely.

[Bluetiger76]

Bluetiger76, on 19 September 2013 - 04:27 PM, said:

JMO......but I got to believe LCC is a lock as well.

Not so fast my friend. Oops, that me.

[daaa browns]

Bluetiger76, on 02 October 2013 - 06:13 PM, said:

Not so fast my friend. Oops, that me.

Hahahahahahahaha it happens to the best of us

[jeffcat-bucki]

brunowball, on 02 October 2013 - 05:15 PM, said:

I don't understand his projections.

Using Jefferson for example, he has them projected at 9-1, yet has them projected to win every game the rest of the year by at least 10. LCC is projected to go 7-3 but he as them winning out which would make them 8-2.

WT, Tinora, & Jefferson are pretty much locked in. Ada could go anywhere from 9-1 to 6-4. Should be at least 7-3 as long as they can knock off Jefferson, LCC, or Crestview. 6-4 isn't that unlikely.

Carey could go 8-2. I think with Wynford being down a little Colonel Crawford can go 8-2. 6-4 is probably unlikely.

Yea, that part of Drew's stats, I don't quite understand. I don't know if he has some type of error margin that throws in a random upset or loss or what.

The NWC is a bit weird this year, and there are still a lot of unknowns as to how good some teams are.

Colonel Crawford is an unknown for me. I can't tell if they are a better team or a worse team than last year, and I can't tell much from their opponent's either. Wynford creamed them last year, but Crawford killed Bucyrus, and Upper Sandusky last year. It seems to be a little different story this year, so now that they are playing some legitimate teams in their conference, we might get some actual answers as it plays itself out. They could go 9-1 or they could go 6-4...I don't know.

It's the same deal with Carey as well.

Edited by jeffcat-bucki, 02 October 2013 - 11:37 PM.

[RWB 71]

I’m not convinced Tinora is a “lock”. They lost to LC and I’m thinking they will lose to both Ayersville and Wayne Trace.

[brunowball]

RWB 71, on 03 October 2013 - 06:09 PM, said:

I’m not convinced Tinora is a “lock”. They lost to LC and I’m thinking they will lose to both Ayersville and Wayne Trace.

Ayersville?

No.

[daaa browns]

RWB 71, on 03 October 2013 - 06:09 PM, said:

I’m not convinced Tinora is a “lock”. They lost to LC and I’m thinking they will lose to both Ayersville and Wayne Trace.

Not a chance they lose to Ayresville...

[jeffcat-bucki]

RWB 71, on 03 October 2013 - 06:09 PM, said:

I’m not convinced Tinora is a “lock”. They lost to LC and I’m thinking they will lose to both Ayersville and Wayne Trace.

You must know something I don't about Ayersville. Tinora lost to LC in OT in the 1st game of the year. LC is a solid team and they would beat Ayersville soundly...or at least that's my presumption.

[jeffcat-bucki]

Friday Week 6 results:

Upper Sandusky 26
Wynford 0

Colonel Crawford 20
Bucyrus 10

Bluffton 42
Allen East 12

Mohawk: 39
Hopewell-Loudon: 20

Wayne Trace 45
Edgerton 0

Delphos Jefferson 34
Convoy Crestview 21

LCC 42
Spencerville 14

Ada 30
Paulding 6

Seneca East 49
North Baltimore 34

Patrick Henry 40
Delta 35


Northwood 55
Hilltop 20

Tinora 63
Fairview 6

Ayersville 40
Holgate 6

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Carey 14
Calvert 44

Edited by jeffcat-bucki, 06 October 2013 - 12:55 PM.

[jeffcat-bucki]

I might run some calculations later at some point with some of my guesstimations. Other's input and revisions wouldn't hurt after the fact. I'm mostly just going to factor in the "fringe" teams as I'm going to count Wayne Trace and DJ as "locks" even though they haven't clinched anything yet. That leaves 6 spots open between 13-14 teams. I should say 5 spots, since Tinora is almost a lock in my eyes, but I have to let them play out their schedule, before I get too far ahead of myself.

[jeffcat-bucki]

NOTE: I am going to list my methodology for these predictions and alternative scenarios when I get time. These are the picks/calculations based on my highest likelihood of occurring scenario. Stay tuned...

My entirely way too early guessfest for how the season will progress. After a couple days(Takes about 20-30 min/team) of wasting my life trying to contemplate outcomes, I've come to this...and yes it will probably inevitably spontaneous combust even after this upcoming week, so be forewarned. If I knew all these outcomes, I would be undefeated in pickems and be a billionaire out in Vegas. I must say that I am really looking forward to see just how close I come on these predictions in an almost competitive manner. There will be a huge weight on the NWC and MAL as their results has about a 30 direction follow over effect on teams from several universes away. I kept in all teams that I think have a legitimate shot at making it in realistically. I'm going to disagree with Drew Pasteur's estimates as teams that he lists as having a very small chance of making it in, have a very real chance in my eyes in CERTAIN scenarios. I'll give some detail on my results, and feel free to let me know if you want to punch me in the face for my sense of logic(or lack there of). Input helps correct some odds and ends.

1: Delphos Jefferson (10-0): 21.5000
2: Wayne Trace (10-0): 20.5500
3: Crestview (8-2): 16.5000 Assume W vs. Ada, Spencer
4: Tinora (8-2)**: 16.4500 Assume W vs. Ayersville, L to Wayne Trace
5: Ada (7-3): 15.0000 Assume L vs. Crestview, Jefferson, W vs LCC
6: Colonel Crawford (8-2): 13.5500 Assume W vs. Wynford, L to Upper Sandusky
7: LCC (7-3): 13.5000 Assume W vs. Bluffton, L to Ada
8: Northwood (8-2): 13.1500 Assume win out
9: Patrick Henry (6-3): 12.8888 Assume W vs. Archbold, L to Wauseon, Bryan
10: Seneca East (8-2): 12.7500 Assume W vs. Mohawk, Hopewell, Lakota, Carey
11: Ayersville (7-3): 10.8500 Assume L to Hicksville, Tinora
12: Bluffton (6-4): 10.5500 Assume W vs. Spencer, L to LCC
13: Carey (6-4): 10.5000 Assume W vs. Lakota, Hopewell, L to Seneca East
14: Elmore Woodmore (7-3): 10.1500 Assume L to Genoa, W vs. Rossford
15: Spencer (5-5): 7.9000 Assume L to Bluffton, Crestview, Jefferson, W vs. Vermilion


Need to do:
Wynford (5-5):

**Tinora: I added 9.0 2nd level points to Tinora's average assuming the Michigan team they beat is going 2-1 the rest of the season based on D5 points. I do not have knowledge of the team or their opponents, so this is ultimately just a fart in the wind guess. I only added it in based on my best judgement to give Tinora SOME points as opposed to none.

I have Hopewell Loudon out as I expect AT LEAST 2 losses as they have to play Carey, Calvert, St. Joe, and Seneca East.

OTHER NOTES:
My calculations ASSUME the following in terms of 2nd level implications:
-Delta goes (7-3) beating both Archbold and Liberty Center.
-Liberty Center goes (5-5) and beats Arlington.
-D5 Swanton beats D6 Evergreen
-Liberty Center beats Archbold
-Perry beats Jefferson Township and Ridgemont
-Allen East beats Paulding and Mt. Gilead
-Columbus Grove beats Paulding
-Vermilion beats Youngstown Christian and Lucas
-Parkway loses the remainder of their games
-Hicksville beats Ayersville
-East Clinton beats Hillsboro and Meadowdale
-LCC beats London
-London loses the rest of it's games
-Cory Rawson beats St. Wendelin(and receives 3.5pts for it...unclear)
-Bath loses the rest of it's games
-DSJ beats Fort Recovery, Versailles, and New Bremen
-Waynesfield Goshen beats Ridgemont
-Montpelier defeats Evergreen
-Otsego beats Fostoria
-Fairview beats Holgate, Antwerp, and Edgerton
-Port Clinton loses the rest of it's games
-Cardinal Stritch loses the rest of it's games
-Elmwood loses the rest of it's games
-Fostoria loses the rest of it's games
-Calvert beats North Baltimore, St. Joe, Mohawk, and Hopewell
-Ottawa Hills beats Cardinal Stritch and Danbury
-Holgate loses the rest of it's games
-Mohawk beats Lakota
-St. Joe beats Hopewell, North Baltimore, and Mohawk
-D6 Lakota beats D7 North Baltimore
-Hopewell loses the rest of it's games
-South Central loses the rest of it's games
-Woodward loses the rest of it's games
-Edon wins out
-Gibsonburg beats Toledo Christian, Hilltop, and Danbury
-Danbury beats Ottawa Hills
-Hillsdale(MI) gets 8.0 points for Tinora(pure guess)
-Ft. Loramie wins out
-Mt. Gilead loses out
-Northmor beats Mt. Gilead, Ridgedale, and Cardington
-Buckeye Central beats Crestline and Riverdale
-Bucyrus beats Crestline and Buckeye Central
-Riverdale loses the rest of it's games
-Wynford beats Crestline and Riverdale
-Crestline loses the rest of it's games.

........and that's just SOME of the assumptions. As you can tell......a lot of predictions that can READILY change.

Edited by jeffcat-bucki, 11 October 2013 - 10:31 AM.

[CKUM]

I hope you are right jeffcat-bucki. If my Knights end up in the playoffs, let alone have a home game, I will be thrilled! We have been close the last couple of years, but some bad luck with injuries has plagued us. Big game for us this weekend!

[jeffcat-bucki]

CKUM, on 09 October 2013 - 11:04 AM, said:

I hope you are right jeffcat-bucki. If my Knights end up in the playoffs, let alone have a home game, I will be thrilled! We have been close the last couple of years, but some bad luck with injuries has plagued us. Big game for us this weekend!

The game vs. Ada is a big one. If Crestview lost, I have them at 13.2500, which would still have them in, but keep in mind, these are MY GUESSES as to what will occur. This is a complex case of 2nd level points with EVERYBODY. For just one tiny example, I am ASSUMING Allen East beats Mt. Gilead, which gives Crestview 4.5 2nd level points....if they lost it would result in Crestview having 12.8000 points and being out based on my current calculations.

Edited by jeffcat-bucki, 09 October 2013 - 11:20 AM.