166 replies to this topic

[nwosports15]

I agree with no passing game. lost their only good receiver because he had to move for his dad's work. i felt bad for Adolph watching the receivers jog routes and drop balls

[PHDigger]

Sorry but I don't recall Northwood ever having the 1 seed. I'm pretty sure last year was their first home playoff game. It would take a lot for them to get the 1 spot, as in all of the other teams would have to lose a lot and they would have to have a perfect year. Last year they ended at 4th. I could be argued that's only because they lost to HL. But if they won that game they would have only moved to 3rd.
1. LC 25.35
2. LCC 23.35
3. NW 21.9318
4. HL 20.7742

Not that its completely impossible. But they just have way too many 3.5's in their numbers when compared to others. That's what really hurts them.

[jeffcat-bucki]

PHDigger, on 18 September 2012 - 01:05 PM, said:

Sorry but I don't recall Northwood ever having the 1 seed. I'm pretty sure last year was their first home playoff game. It would take a lot for them to get the 1 spot, as in all of the other teams would have to lose a lot and they would have to have a perfect year. Last year they ended at 4th. I could be argued that's only because they lost to HL. But if they won that game they would have only moved to 3rd.
1. LC 25.35
2. LCC 23.35
3. NW 21.9318
4. HL 20.7742

Not that its completely impossible. But they just have way too many 3.5's in their numbers when compared to others. That's what really hurts them.

Perhaps, I was mistaken. I thought there was an undefeated year where they were a 1 seed, but I might be wrong. At any rate, I was speaking more in terms, that it's attainable for them to be a 1 seed...not that it will actually occur. IE: Northwood goes undefeated and PH loses to Bryan/Archbold, LCC loses to Ada, LC loses to Bryan....just as an example of course.

With all that being said, seeds don't make a great deal of differences. If you get into the show, you get your shot and a lot of high seeds in a lot of regions are weaker teams playing weak schedules and running the table.

[Teddy Malone]

The highest Northwood has finished in the computer points since it first made the playoffs in 2001, is 4th, twice.

[BlueJay]

Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.00)
Northwood 99% (9W-99% 10W-100% )
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 99% (7W-69% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 97% (7W-24% 8W-92% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Archbold 75% (6W-6% 7W-44% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Hicksville 69% (6W-1% 7W-20% 8W-96% )
Liberty Center 67% (6W-3% 7W-41% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Columbia (Columbia Station) 56% (6W-1% 7W-22% 8W-85% 9W-100% )
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 56% (7W-2% 8W-38% 9W-99% )
Carey 52% (6W-2% 7W-34% 8W-93% 9W-100% )
Western Reserve (Collins) 48% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-56% 9W-97% )
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 40% (6W-4% 7W-58% 8W-99% )
Jefferson (Delphos) 18% (7W-1% 8W-33% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Tinora (Defiance) 5% (8W-1% 9W-58% )
Columbus Grove 5% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-72% )
Seneca East (Attica) 3% (7W-1% 8W-17% 9W-90% )
Elmwood (Bloomdale) 2% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-47% 9W-100% )
Spencerville 2% (7W-1% 8W-44% 9W-100% )
Evergreen (Metamora) 2% (6W-1% 7W-47% 8W-100% )

[Bluetiger76]

nwosports15, on 18 September 2012 - 09:33 AM, said:

not many options on offense after losing their running back, but he will be back soon so that will help. solid defense though! leipsic is still averaging 490 yards a game even after VB held them to 270

According to the Courier website Leipsic is averaging 403 yards of offense a game after game 4. McComb is averaging 493 and LB is at 477 yards.

[Corleone]

BlueJay, on 18 September 2012 - 06:23 PM, said:

Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.00) Northwood 99% (9W-99% 10W-100% ) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 99% (7W-69% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% ) Patrick Henry (Hamler) 97% (7W-24% 8W-92% 9W-100% 10W-100% ) Archbold 75% (6W-6% 7W-44% 8W-99% 9W-100% ) Hicksville 69% (6W-1% 7W-20% 8W-96% ) Liberty Center 67% (6W-3% 7W-41% 8W-99% 9W-100% ) Columbia (Columbia Station) 56% (6W-1% 7W-22% 8W-85% 9W-100% ) Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 56% (7W-2% 8W-38% 9W-99% ) Carey 52% (6W-2% 7W-34% 8W-93% 9W-100% ) Western Reserve (Collins) 48% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-56% 9W-97% ) Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 40% (6W-4% 7W-58% 8W-99% ) Jefferson (Delphos) 18% (7W-1% 8W-33% 9W-99% 10W-100% ) Tinora (Defiance) 5% (8W-1% 9W-58% ) Columbus Grove 5% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-72% ) Seneca East (Attica) 3% (7W-1% 8W-17% 9W-90% ) Elmwood (Bloomdale) 2% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-47% 9W-100% ) Spencerville 2% (7W-1% 8W-44% 9W-100% ) Evergreen (Metamora) 2% (6W-1% 7W-47% 8W-100% )

Good information. Did you calc this yourself? Or get it from some other site?

[Long Shot]

Corleone, on 18 September 2012 - 08:10 PM, said:

Good information. Did you calc this yourself? Or get it from some other site?

Look here
http://www.fantastic...Ohio_Berths.php

[Corleone]

Cool, thanks.

[nwosports15]

i must have gotten mccomb leipsic stats mixed up. apologies. but still the 270 is impressive for mccomb. i think they can beat arlington and arcadia

[Northwestsports]

jeffcat-bucki, on 13 September 2012 - 10:28 PM, said:

Did St. Joseph magically improve light years this year or what's the story there? Carey absolutely annihilated them last year.

Must have

[Northwestsports]

Here are my thoughts on the top 8 right

Patric Henry They should win out with only a good Bryan team left to play

Liberty Center See above

Northwood They should win out don't see any problems for them

LCC They win out Even though Bishop is undefeated they are suspect looking at the teams they have played Ada will be their biggest test

Archbold They have one loss and I see at least two more by season end PH and LC

Jefferson They lost to LCC sat, I see them losing to Ada and possibly Spencerville

Liberty Benton They can win out but will they their big game will be Leipsic if they win that one just don't look past VanBuren

Carey They lost to to SJCC last night and they have 3 games coming up with decent teams that could go ether way

Western Reserve Not sure looks like they may have two games left that could give them trouble but maybe not

Oberlin They are 5-0 right but the teams they beat have only two wins total, their next two games are with teams with a winning record

Edited by Northwestsports, 23 September 2012 - 11:15 AM.

[calvert_alum]

As an MAL fan It would be nice to see Carey get in along with SJCC and Calvert. However, I'm not sure its possible now with Calvert next week, HL and Seneca East still on the schedule. However, if they get by Calvert its possible they could finish 8-2.

[jeffcat-bucki]

Northwestsports, on 23 September 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:

Must have

I guess so....color me impressed.

[jeffcat-bucki]

Northwestsports, on 23 September 2012 - 11:11 AM, said:

Here are my thoughts on the top 8 right

Patric Henry They should win out with only a good Bryan team left to play

Liberty Center See above

Northwood They should win out don't see any problems for them

LCC They win out Even though Bishop is undefeated they are suspect looking at the teams they have played Ada will be their biggest test

Archbold They have one loss and I see at least two more by season end PH and LC

Jefferson They lost to LCC sat, I see them losing to Ada and possibly Spencerville

Liberty Benton They can win out but will they their big game will be Leipsic if they win that one just don't look past VanBuren

Carey They lost to to SJCC last night and they have 3 games coming up with decent teams that could go ether way

Western Reserve Not sure looks like they may have two games left that could give them trouble but maybe not

Oberlin They are 5-0 right but the teams they beat have only two wins total, their next two games are with teams with a winning record

St. Paul could give WR a good game and possibly win. Oberlin has a fair chance of winning out after this week. I think Columbia will beat them this week though, which does nobody any favors as it puts both Oberlin and Columbia in contention for a spot. Based on results, I don't see Clearview beating either of them this year...Lutheran West has a shot at them. Columbia Station runs the table at 9-1 in my opinion unless Lutheran West beats them.

I pretty much agree with the rest.

[Northwestsports]

Even with LCC and PH both playing unbeaten teams I say non of the top 8 lose this week.

[Bluetiger76]

Update:

Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.87)
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 99% (7W-83% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Northwood 99% (8W-69% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 99% (7W-45% 8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Western Reserve (Collins) 94% (7W-38% 8W-92% 9W-99% )
Columbia (Columbia Station) 83% (6W-1% 7W-18% 8W-85% 9W-99% )
Liberty Center 77% (6W-1% 7W-49% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 70% (7W-1% 8W-55% 9W-99% )
Archbold 53% (6W-1% 7W-12% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Carey 31% (6W-1% 7W-8% 8W-88% )
Jefferson (Delphos) 30% (7W-1% 8W-74% 9W-100% )
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 22% (6W-1% 7W-28% 8W-97% )
Spencerville 20% (7W-1% 8W-78% )
Tinora (Defiance) 14% (8W-1% 9W-18% )
Seneca East (Attica) 2% (7W-1% 8W-44% )
New London 2% (7W-1% 8W-52% )

[oberhaus]

Bluetiger76, on 03 October 2012 - 10:58 PM, said:

Update:

Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.87)
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 99% (7W-83% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Northwood 99% (8W-69% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 99% (7W-45% 8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Western Reserve (Collins) 94% (7W-38% 8W-92% 9W-99% )
Columbia (Columbia Station) 83% (6W-1% 7W-18% 8W-85% 9W-99% )
Liberty Center 77% (6W-1% 7W-49% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 70% (7W-1% 8W-55% 9W-99% )
Archbold 53% (6W-1% 7W-12% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Carey 31% (6W-1% 7W-8% 8W-88% )
Jefferson (Delphos) 30% (7W-1% 8W-74% 9W-100% )
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 22% (6W-1% 7W-28% 8W-97% )
Spencerville 20% (7W-1% 8W-78% )
Tinora (Defiance) 14% (8W-1% 9W-18% )
Seneca East (Attica) 2% (7W-1% 8W-44% )
New London 2% (7W-1% 8W-52% )

Am I just not seeing Wayne Trace's percentage or is it not on this list?

[oberhaus]

It amazes me how weak the GMC is. A 9-1 Tinora will most likely not make the playoffs but an 8-2 Northwood would have a good shot at it...my how times have changed.

[NoSoup4U]

Spencerville should be leading Jefferson in points when they play in week 10. But I think the winner of that game may still finish 9th in the region.