166 replies to this topic

[Teddy Malone]

Here's my analysis, without going deeply into second level results:

1. 25.0611 LCC (even)
2. 19.8500 Archbold (up 1)
3. 18.9000 Northwood (down 1)
4. 18.4000 Columbia (up 1)
5. 18.1000 L-B (down 1)
6. 15.4000 PH (even)
7. 15.3727 Spencerville (up 4)
8. 15.3000 WT (up 2)

9. 15.2500 Western Reserve (down 2)
10. 15.1000 Carey (down 1)
11. 13.6500 LC (down 3)
12. 11.0000 Seneca East (even)

The only losses predicted are LC, Seneca East, and Delphos Jefferson. Other possible outcomes:
LCC loss to Ada = 21.1757 (still 1^st)
LC over Archbold = 17.4000 (5^th) for LC, and 16.5000 (6^th) for Archbold
Columbia loss to Clearview = 14.6500 (10^th)
Seneca East over Carey = 14.2000 (10^th) for SE and 12.1500 (12^th) for Carey
Jefferson over Spencerville = 12.7500 (11^th) for Jefferson and 12.6494 (12^th) for Spencerville

The big winner is Spencerville, if it can beat Jefferson. Only three teams have clinched so far but L-B, Columbia, and LC all control their own destinies. 6^th through 10^th are amazingly close, there’s so much that can happen in terms of second level possibilities.
LCC: Should be #1 easily even if it loses to Ada.
Archbold: In either way, but can still get a home game with a loss, if Columbia loses. If Archbold loses, it would probably be locked into 6th, or 5th if Columbia loses.
Northwood: Anywhere from 2^nd-5^th at worst, but basically has a home game clinched.
Columbia: definitely in with a win, and lined up for a home game currently, but with a loss, would need Carey, LC and Spencerville to lose, and/or get some second level help.
L-B: Should be 5^th at worst, home game if Archbold or Columbia lose.
PH: Here’s where second level starts to come into play. PH is in the best position but would fall behind LC if LC wins, and second level becomes more important vs. the teams behind it. Columbia losing would bump PH back up a spot though.
Spencerville: No chance with a loss, but nothing is secure with a win either. Pretty much the same as PH regarding LC & Columbia, except second level is predicted to be a tad worse.
WT: Less margin for error than PH or Spencerville (if Spencerville wins), but LC and Columbia losing would help greatly.
Western Reserve: Could still be in if LC or Columbia lose but it would take some unexpected second level help somewhere.
Carey: Could be real close if Columbia and LC lose, but would take more help than WR.
LC: Would basically be on an island with Archbold for 5th and 6th - a bit ahead of that congested pack at the bottom, but probably not enough to catch L-B for the final home game. LC would host though if Columbia loses. LC has no chance with a loss.

Edited by Teddy Malone, 21 October 2012 - 01:57 PM.

[playmaker]

ADog, on 20 October 2012 - 08:14 PM, said:

He must have been talking about 2008. Kirtland lost by 1 that year then 2 years later were drilled

Them blowing it helped cost LB a state title that year

[Northwestsports]

Not sure about that we will never know.

[oberhaus]

Would be nice to see LC beat Archbold and get 4 NWOAL teams in the playoffs.

[cubbies4life]

playmaker, on 21 October 2012 - 04:06 PM, said:

Them blowing it helped cost LB a state title that year

UGH still remember that game 4 years later! D5-school playing with D-1 talent year after year.

[Corleone]

2012lbhs, on 21 October 2012 - 12:46 PM, said:

If L-B wins out, which they should, what spot will they finish in ? thanks

Northwestsports, on 21 October 2012 - 01:36 PM, said:

I'm no expert but if Columbia wins they will probably finish ahead of L-B I don't think the Liberty-Center game will change where L-B finishes because if Liberty Center wins they would be ahead of L-B but that means Archbold lost so they would drop below L-B. So that game is a wash as far as L-B moving up or down. My best guess is if Columbia wins they will host L-B. Gonna be close they lose and L-B should have a home game. I think Maybe Oberhaus can shed some better light on this subject he is better with the numbers than I am.

Dusted off the spreadsheet after a few years. LB will finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th, and end up at 18.1 or 18.45. To end up at fifth, the following has to happen:

• Columbia Station wins
  
• Archbold wins
  
• Leipsic loses to McComb. A win over McComb will put LB .1 of a point ahead of Columbia, 18.45 to 18.35, but still well behind Archbold.

If Archbold wins and Columbia loses, LB will be 4th. No scenario where they catch Archbold.
If both lose, LB will finish 3rd. Even a Liberty Center win over Archbold will not allow LC to pass LB. I've got LC topping out at 17.4 - LC needs some big upsets to catch LB.

[RWB 71]

oberhaus, on 21 October 2012 - 04:23 PM, said:

Would be nice to see LC beat Archbold and get 4 NWOAL teams in the playoffs.

Yes, that would be great to see. I'm not sure if that has ever happened before?

I looked back as far as the 2000 season and we had as many as three in seasons 2000/2002/2004/2007/2008

[several]

Here are my projections. They are close to Teddy's.
1 LCC 25.415 2 ARCHBOLD 19.850 3 NORTHWOOD 19.250 4 LIBERTY BENTON 18.050 5 COLUMBIA 18.000 6 W. RESERVE 15.600 7 PATRICK HENRY 15.400 8 SPENCERVILLE 15.373 9 WAYNE TRACE 15.300 10 CAREY 15.100 11 LC
13.250

The wild cards are Western Reserve and Carey. They both have a lot of seconf level games that can put them in. WR has Black River vs Keystone (+.45 which I have predicted), South Central sv New London (+.40) and Magaretta vs SMCC (+.35). Carey has Scott vs Rogers (+.55), Bluffton vs Grove (+.40), Mohawk vs FSJ (+.35) and two games that can give them an additional .05 each. At 15.10, I an predicting they only get one .05 game and none fo the others.

For all the PH fans, I have PH in except if the following scenerio happens, and they all have to happen. LC and Columbia win. WR and Carey win. Black River, Margaretta and South Central win. Any two of Scott, Bluffton and Mohawk win. That would mean 9 of 10 toss up type games would have to go against PH.

[2012lbhs]

several, on 21 October 2012 - 06:06 PM, said:

Here are my projections. They are close to Teddy's.
1 LCC 25.415 2 ARCHBOLD 19.850 3 NORTHWOOD 19.250 4 LIBERTY BENTON 18.050 5 COLUMBIA 18.000 6 W. RESERVE 15.600 7 PATRICK HENRY 15.400 8 SPENCERVILLE 15.373 9 WAYNE TRACE 15.300 10 CAREY 15.100 11 LC
13.250

The wild cards are Western Reserve and Carey. They both have a lot of seconf level games that can put them in. WR has Black River vs Keystone (+.45 which I have predicted), South Central sv New London (+.40) and Magaretta vs SMCC (+.35). Carey has Scott vs Rogers (+.55), Bluffton vs Grove (+.40), Mohawk vs FSJ (+.35) and two games that can give them an additional .05 each. At 15.10, I an predicting they only get one .05 game and none fo the others.

For all the PH fans, I have PH in except if the following scenerio happens, and they all have to happen. LC and Columbia win. WR and Carey win. Black River, Margaretta and South Central win. Any two of Scott, Bluffton and Mohawk win. That would mean 9 of 10 toss up type games would have to go against PH.

Wow, alot goes into that, guess we just have to wait and see... THANK..

[#Sand]

several, on 21 October 2012 - 06:06 PM, said:

Here are my projections. They are close to Teddy's.
1 LCC 25.415 2 ARCHBOLD 19.850 3 NORTHWOOD 19.250 4 LIBERTY BENTON 18.050 5 COLUMBIA 18.000 6 W. RESERVE 15.600 7 PATRICK HENRY 15.400 8 SPENCERVILLE 15.373 9 WAYNE TRACE 15.300 10 CAREY 15.100 11 LC
13.250

The wild cards are Western Reserve and Carey. They both have a lot of seconf level games that can put them in. WR has Black River vs Keystone (+.45 which I have predicted), South Central sv New London (+.40) and Magaretta vs SMCC (+.35). Carey has Scott vs Rogers (+.55), Bluffton vs Grove (+.40), Mohawk vs FSJ (+.35) and two games that can give them an additional .05 each. At 15.10, I an predicting they only get one .05 game and none fo the others.

For all the PH fans, I have PH in except if the following scenerio happens, and they all have to happen. LC and Columbia win. WR and Carey win. Black River, Margaretta and South Central win. Any two of Scott, Bluffton and Mohawk win. That would mean 9 of 10 toss up type games would have to go against PH.

Year in and year out Several always does a good job (and his homework). Great job again this year (you sick spreadsheet guru).

[several]

I have been doing this on the same excel spreadsheet since about 1995. It makes it nice that Joe Eitel has his website because it is much easier getting scores and double checking my numbers. Back then, I had to use the paper and the AP to get scores, and that was tough. Now it is sooooooo much easier.

[several]

Lets try to summarize. There are 4 teams in: LCC, Northwood, Archbold and L-B. Two other teams control their own fate with wins: Columbia and LC. That means there are either 2,3 or 4 spots up from grabs since both columbia and LC both have a 50/50 chance of winning. With a loss by either, PH is in. So at the most there will be 3 spots open and at the least 1 spot open.

Western Reserve is the most likely to get a spot. I explained their second level games above.

Carey has a tough game with Seneca East. I explained their second level above as well.

Spencerville needs a win and a win from Allen East over Swanton and Perry over Ridgemont to get to 15.37. This means they cannot get past PH who has a minimum of 15.40. Even though I have then 8th, they need some help.

Wayne Trace is also waiting in the wings. I think their max is 15.2 with a win by Perry. Their other 3 second level games are huge upsets if they happen.

Seneca East is not out but needs a lot of help to get to #8. Obviously they need to beat Carey. With a win I have them at 14.20. The only second level game I have in their favor is Plymouth/Crestview. They would need both LC and Columbia to lose and find a way to get to 15.20. That means the following would have to happen: Hopewell Loudin/Calvert, South Central/New London, and Monroeville/St Paul. I figure Mohawk/FSJ is unrealistic. Also root heavy for Ridgemont/Perry since this game effects both Spencerville and Wayne Trace.

[Teddy Malone]

Just curious several, how do you pick winners? I give the win to the team with the better record except in certain cases - like if Hicksville was 7-2 and was going against a 6-3 Coldwater team, and usually I give a perennial playoff team from Ohio the benefit of the doubt over a team from another state if the records are close. And ties go to the team with the higher computer average.
And you are right, if Eitel's site didn't exist, I wouldn't bother doing it.

[playmaker]

Is Columbia an actual threat? Like could they win a few games in the playoffs. Same question for Northwood.

[several]

Teddy,

For teams in the area I do not know, I compare their results against like teams. If both teams win or lose in a lowout then I throw them out. If their is a trend that team A is 4-1 and team B is 2-3 against like opponents, then I pick Team A. I also look at the quality of their non-league schedules. Sometimes even after you compare them all, you still have to guess. Perfect example is Black River vs Keystone. When you compare the teams that both have played the results are similiar. They both played a tough non-confernce schedule. I put in a Black river win but consider this a 50/50 game.

[calvert_alum]

Good luck to the MAL this weekend! I would love to see Seneca East or Carey sneak in. Seneca East could easily be 9-0 right now with one touchdown losses to both Calvert and Fremont St. Joe. Calvert and SJCC seem to be the only playoff locks from the MAL, so I'm pulling for our conference this weekend.

Edited by calvert_alum, 23 October 2012 - 01:37 PM.

[Corleone]

playmaker, on 23 October 2012 - 12:07 PM, said:

Is Columbia an actual threat? Like could they win a few games in the playoffs. Same question for Northwood.

You can never say for sure, but traditionally the D5 teams that get placed in Region 18 from the Cleveland area have a lot of trouble beating teams from the western half of the state.

[Teddy Malone]

playmaker, on 23 October 2012 - 12:07 PM, said:

Is Columbia an actual threat? Like could they win a few games in the playoffs. Same question for Northwood.

Columbia has never won a playoff game and plays a schedule that isn't overly formidable. In another region maybe, but not in this region. Northwood plays in maybe the worst non-inner city conference in the state, and no one will ever give it any credit, but I have a hunch it might win its second ever playoff game this year. I don't see it as a threat to win the region, though.

several, on 23 October 2012 - 12:47 PM, said:

Teddy,

For teams in the area I do not know, I compare their results against like teams. If both teams win or lose in a lowout then I throw them out. If their is a trend that team A is 4-1 and team B is 2-3 against like opponents, then I pick Team A. I also look at the quality of their non-league schedules. Sometimes even after you compare them all, you still have to guess. Perfect example is Black River vs Keystone. When you compare the teams that both have played the results are similiar. They both played a tough non-confernce schedule. I put in a Black river win but consider this a 50/50 game.

That's a pretty good analysis, but I don't feel like spending the time researching all that stuff. Either way, no one can correctly predict every game in week 10 and that's why analysis of different scenarios is what makes it so fun, instead of just posting final computer average projections with no commentary.

[oberhaus]

1. LCC
2. Northwood
3. Columbia/LB
5. LC
6. Archbold
7. PH
8. WR/Carey (hinges on Margaretta-SMCC game tomorrow)

[calvert_alum]

oberhaus, on 26 October 2012 - 09:37 PM, said:

1. LCC
2. Northwood
3. Columbia/LB
5. LC
6. Archbold
7. PH
8. WR/Carey (hinges on Margaretta-SMCC game tomorrow)

Kevin, if this is accurate, look for Carey to be on the outside looking in after tomorrow's game. That's sad too because Carey has been playing KILLER ball of late.