148 replies to this topic

[calvert_alum]

http://www.joeeitel....2region_22.html

Rank W-L ID # City School Average Level 1 Level 2 L2 divisor
1 2-0 990 McComb McComb4.4500 7.5 7.0 100
2 2-0 128 Arcadia Arcadia4.1500 7.5 4.0 100
- 2-0 854 Leipsic Leipsic4.1500 7.5 4.0 100
4 2-0 520 Edon Edon3.5000 7.0 0.0 100
5 1-1 1358 Delphos St John's2.9000 5.0 4.0 100
6 1-1 312 Oregon Cardinal Stritch2.7500 5.5 0.0 100
- 1-1 343 Toledo Toledo Christian2.7500 5.5 0.0 100
8 1-1 136 Arlington Arlington2.3500 4.0 3.5 100

Above, is a look at the top 8 teams in the region after week two.

Below, is a look at the teams on the outside looking in.

9 1-1 298 Tiffin Calvert2.1000 3.5 3.5 100
- 1-1 726 Holgate Holgate2.1000 3.5 3.5 100
- 1-1 1066 Montpelier Montpelier2.1000 3.5 3.5 100
- 1-1 1130 North Baltimore North Baltimore2.1000 3.5 3.5 100
13 1-1 438 Convoy Crestview2.0000 4.0 0.0 100
14 1-1 154 DefianceAyersville1.7500 3.5 0.0 100
- 1-1 424 Rawson Cory-Rawson1.7500 3.5 0.0 100
- 1-1 452 Lakeside Danbury1.7500 3.5 0.0 99
- 1-1 722 West Unity Hilltop1.7500 3.5 0.0 100
- 1-1 1060 Sycamore Mohawk1.7500 3.5 0.0 100
- 1-1 1370 Fremont St Joseph Central Catholic1.7500 3.5 0.0 100
- 1-1 1374 Norwalk St Paul1.7500 3.5 0.0 100
21 0-2 126 Antwerp Antwerp0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
- 0-2 512 EdgertonEdgerton0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
- 0-2 1064 Monroeville Monroeville0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
- 0-2 1216 Toledo Ottawa Hills0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
- 0-2 1228 Pandora Pandora-Gilboa0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
- 0-2 1242 Lima Perry0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
- 0-2 1446 Greenwich South Central0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
- 0-2 1372 Sandusky St Mary Central Catholic0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
- 0-0 1386 Fostoria St Wendelin0.0000 0.0 0.0 80
- 0-2 1594 Vanlue Vanlue0.0000 0.0 0.0 100

This region appears to be pretty weak once again. The three shoo-in's appear to be McComb, Leipsic and Delphos St. John's. The Edon Bombers made the playoffs last year, in which they lost to Tiffin Calvert in the first round. The Bombers are 2-0 and could make it back for a second straight season. I have the opportunity to watch Calvert play quite a few times a year and I believe they will achieve the necessary 6 or 7 wins to get in the playoffs in this region. They hung tough with a good McComb team through three quarters (28-21) but then wore down. Could a once proud Norwalk St. Paul team make the playoffs after a one year hiatus? The Midland-Athletic League has a couple teams in Mohawk and Fremont SJCC who could be an interesting pick as well.

However, I will re-iterate that this region is very blurry once you look past DSJ, McComb and Leipsic.

Edited by calvert_alum, 04 September 2012 - 08:47 PM.

[Bobby]

With games against St. Henry, Coldwater, Anna, Marion Local, Versailles and Minster left on the schedule, I don't think DSJ is a shoo-in quite yet. But, if we get in we could have some success.

[calvert_alum]

I was just going off recent history. I don't really know a whole lot about DSJ football this year.

[BlueJay]

Bobby, on 04 September 2012 - 09:10 PM, said:

With games against St. Henry, Coldwater, Anna, Marion Local, Versailles and Minster left on the schedule, I don't think DSJ is a shoo-in quite yet. But, if we get in we could have some success.

Fantastic 50's playoff projections (though it's way too early to tell) shows DSJ having an 89% chance of getting in at 5-5. I'm sure a lot of it depends on how Port Clinton does and whether or not we beat St. Henry & ML.


Anyway, I will say this region is between DSJ and McComb.

[calvert_alum]

http://fantastic50.net/Ohio_Berths.php By the looks of this, Norwalk St. Paul and DSJ should only need a combine 11 wins to get into the post-season

[jeffcat-bucki]

Bobby, on 04 September 2012 - 09:10 PM, said:

With games against St. Henry, Coldwater, Anna, Marion Local, Versailles and Minster left on the schedule, I don't think DSJ is a shoo-in quite yet. But, if we get in we could have some success.

With the win over DIII Port Clinton, DSJ could probably go 4-6 and still make the playoffs in R22.

[CKUM]

Crestview will get in.....mark my word.

[Common Sense]

Ada moving out of this region really thinned things down. Hard to believe DSJ would be 5-5, but they play a killer schedule. Wouldn't it be something if they got matched up with the #1 or #2 team in the region for the first round?

And then next year, going to 7 divisions, all the regions will even be smaller.

[BlueJay]

CKUM, on 04 September 2012 - 11:27 PM, said:

Crestview will get in.....mark my word.

I don't know. With a loss to LCC already, a loss to Ada likely, and maybe even Spencerville...7-3 wouldn't be enough to get them in.

[oberhaus]

BlueJay, on 05 September 2012 - 08:06 PM, said:

I don't know. With a loss to LCC already, a loss to Ada likely, and maybe even Spencerville...7-3 wouldn't be enough to get them in.

7-3 should be easily in. Its R22.

[Warthog]

If you look at the details at fantastic50, a 7 win Crestview team has a 99% chance of making the playoffs.

[oberhaus]

Warthog, on 05 September 2012 - 10:48 PM, said:

If you look at the details at fantastic50, a 7 win Crestview team has a 99% chance of making the playoffs.

Exactly

[calvert_alum]

Warthog, on 05 September 2012 - 10:48 PM, said:

If you look at the details at fantastic50, a 7 win Crestview team has a 99% chance of making the playoffs.

Sadly, all 'BlueJay' cares about is his DSJ sqaud. BlueJay was the first person to bring up fantastic50 in this thread, and the first person to deny Crestview a bid at 7 wins. What gives? ...

[fortfan]

I don't know why any DSJ fan would worry about making the playoffs.

The only worry they should have is what hotel to stay in championship weekend.

[bvcgrad]

Arlington will finish 7-3 and make the playoffs in this region.

[jeffcat-bucki]

Common Sense, on 05 September 2012 - 11:02 AM, said:

Ada moving out of this region really thinned things down. Hard to believe DSJ would be 5-5, but they play a killer schedule. Wouldn't it be something if they got matched up with the #1 or #2 team in the region for the first round?

And then next year, going to 7 divisions, all the regions will even be smaller.

According to the proposed cutoffs, DSJ and Leipsic will both be D7.

[davidson33]

jeffcat-bucki, on 06 September 2012 - 03:04 PM, said:

According to the proposed cutoffs, DSJ and Leipsic will both be D7.

So will McComb and Calvert. Not much will change. Only Ada and maybe Crestview will be up a division in D6.

[BlueJay]

calvert_alum, on 06 September 2012 - 09:14 AM, said:

Sadly, all 'BlueJay' cares about is his DSJ sqaud. BlueJay was the first person to bring up fantastic50 in this thread, and the first person to deny Crestview a bid at 7 wins. What gives? ...

Simple: I didn't check Crestview's chances.

They also may lose to Jefferson. They are a team to watch for this season.

[jeffcat-bucki]

Warthog, on 05 September 2012 - 10:48 PM, said:

If you look at the details at fantastic50, a 7 win Crestview team has a 99% chance of making the playoffs.

While I think Crestview easily makes it in, I'm not a big fan of the F50 stat lines as they are purely mathematical AKA not realistically accurate. They have my DJ team in with a 98% chance as a 9 win team and I think that is being VERY optimistic considering other teams in R18, scheduling, how things will play out, etc, and in reality should be more in the 70ish percentile range. It's not far fetched at all to think DJ could go 9-1 and not make it in R18. Likewise, Pasteur uses his "guesses" on outcomes of simulated games and then factors them all into one big equation that calculates everybody's probabilities. By simply changing the outcome of 1 single game, you can change the outcome of the entire equation for half of the teams in the state.

He has DSJ as having a 28% chance of making it in with 4 wins, where as I would physically put it at around 50% or more. R22 has grown weaker and easier to get into, plus he has Port Clinton going 4-6, which is on the conservative end as they could possibly go 6-4 and probably 4-6 is the worst case scenario for them. Also, when he puts up % chance based on the amount of Ws a team has, he doesn't discern in terms of WHICH WIN that team gets. IE: Crestview wins 7 games...what 7 games did they win? A win over LCC for example is quite different from a win over Parkway. The nice part is he updates it as it goes, but it's quite inaccurate at this stage until about Week 7 or 8 when more has played out(outside of mathematical calculation) and he adjusts the proposed cutoffs for the playoffs.

Edited by jeffcat-bucki, 07 September 2012 - 12:38 PM.

[BlueJay]

1 3-0 990 McComb McComb 5.5833 11.5 17.5 100
2 3-0 854 Leipsic Leipsic 4.4167 11.0 7.5 100
3 2-1 1358 Delphos St John's 4.1333 8.5 13.0 100
4 2-1 136 Arlington Arlington 3.6000 7.5 11.0 100
5 2-1 438 Convoy Crestview 3.4667 8.0 8.0 100
6 2-1 128 Arcadia Arcadia 3.2500 7.5 7.5 100
7 2-1 1370 Fremont St Joseph Central Catholic 2.8500 7.5 3.5 100
8 2-1 154 Defiance Ayersville 2.6833 7.0 3.5 100
- 2-1 722 West Unity Hilltop 2.6833 7.0 3.5 100
10 2-1 520 Edon Edon 2.3333 7.0 0.0 100

Edited by BlueJay, 09 September 2012 - 12:13 PM.