148 replies to this topic

[jeffcat-bucki]

DirtyPBear76, on 05 October 2012 - 02:48 PM, said:

Weak bottom 5 yes. Extremely good top 3 yes. Then 2 teams in the middle that are so so. Don't know if the BVCis weak. I would expect at least 1 if not 2 wins in playoffs from the top 3. Could be more. Everyone said this last year and LB did ok and Leipsic had their opportunities to go to state who beat McComb.

Leipsic was definitely the 2nd or 3rd best team in the state last year for D6. They had an excellent opportunity to knock off DSJ and didn't take advantage of it. I don't think they would have beat Marion Local last year though. Either way, not a team to overlook.

[DirtyPBear76]

jeffcat-bucki, on 05 October 2012 - 05:22 PM, said:

Leipsic was definitely the 2nd or 3rd best team in the state last year for D6. They had an excellent opportunity to knock off DSJ and didn't take advantage of it. I don't think they would have beat Marion Local last year though. Either way, not a team to overlook.

Very true. I forgot Leipsic lost to DSJ in regional finals not State semi's.

[dhsdawg06]

I can't wait to see how bad Ayersville gets beat by an actual good team if they go 5-5 and sneak in............


Hint: if they get Leipsic it'll be over the minute they get on the bus. Vikings could put up 70 if they felt like it.

[calvert_alum]

Rank W-L School Average Level 1 Level 2
1 6-1 St Joseph Central Catholic 10.9571 23.5 76.0
2 7-0 McComb 10.4929 25.5 68.5
3 7-0 Leipsic 10.2429 25.5 66.0
4 4-3 Arlington 7.1429 15.0 50.0
5 4-3 St John's 6.5357 16.0 42.5
6 4-3 Calvert 6.0429 15.0 39.0
7 5-2 Ottawa Hills 5.9214 18.0 33.5
8 4-3 Ayersville 5.9000 14.0 39.0

Outside Looking In
9 3-4 Crestview 4.4143 12.0 27.0
(Crestview nearly pulled off the upset over Ada last night. This would have shook-up the bottom half.)
10 4-3 Christian 4.2357 16.0 19.5
(Tol. Christian lost to a bad Gibsonburg team last night, which also gave a great deal of Level 2 pts to SJCC.)
11 3-3 St Paul 4.1000 10.5 23.5
(NSP has a chance to get back into the thick of things with a win over (4-2) New London tonight.)


Playoff Locks:
SJCC, McComb, and Leipsic. These three teams will be in the post-season.

Near Locks:
Arlington, and Delphos St. John's. Arlington needs 6 wins to get in, and they should finish with 7. Delphos needs one more win and they should be money and if they meet Arlington in the first round, the Red Devils better watch out. And, I'm even putting Ottawa Hills in the 'Near Lock's. Ottawa Hills should win out and with 7 wins they will be a lock. However, one slip-up and they're on the outside looking in.

On the Bubble:
Tiffin Calvert- As a former player, none of these last three games will be easy. All of these games are rival match-ups. You have the battle of the rock coming up with two catholic institutions (SJCC). The following week they take on their long rival Mohawk down the road on (OH-231). Finally, week 10 has them hosting Hopewell-Loudon in which they travel a whopping 5 miles to meet the Senecas. The last 6 games between these two teams, had them both winning three apiece.

Edited by calvert_alum, 06 October 2012 - 09:15 AM.

[calvert_alum]

Ayersville will finish 5-5 so I don't think we will have to worry about them sneaking in. They barely beat an awful Edgerton team last night. With games against Hicksville and Tinora still on the schedule, I see them going 5-5.

Ottawa Hills should finish at 7-3 with wins over Danbury and Toledo Christian which means they would sneak in.

Crestview, well ..I'm not even going to try and predict this one because they've been all over the place. I say 5-5 but who knows they could finish 6-4. Crestview would likely need to win-out to make the post-season.

Toledo Christian I see finishing 5-5 over even 4-6. With losses to Northwood and probably Ottawa Hills.

Norwalk St. Paul has a lot of points out there that they can still grab. However, tough match-ups with New London, Plymouth and Monroeville still remain. NSP would most likely have to finish 3-1 to get a week 11 match-up.

My Sleeper:
Monroeville- They could sneak in at 5-5 if they win-out. This team has been involved in close games the entire year. They've held tough with every team they faced.

Edited by calvert_alum, 06 October 2012 - 08:56 AM.

[BlueJay]

DSJ has a very good chance of getting in if they go 5-5.

[dw629]

BlueJay, on 06 October 2012 - 09:24 AM, said:

DSJ has a very good chance of getting in if they go 5-5.

http://www.fantastic...=Ohio_Region_22

According to Drew Pasteurs website DSJ has an 89% chance of making the playoffs at 5-5 so very likely

[calvert_alum]

BlueJay, on 06 October 2012 - 09:24 AM, said:

DSJ has a very good chance of getting in if they go 5-5.

Yep, that's why I had them as a 'Near Lock' because with one more win they will be in.

[calvert_alum]

Finally, Norwalk St. Paul stepped up and played like a team vying for a post-season spot. NSP played like the team of old last night in a thrashing of New London. New London is not that bad of a football team, and the Flyers just put it to them. Maybe these guys have awakened. St. Paul is now 7th in Reg 22 and right behind Tiffin Calvert. Calvert is now just points away from that all important #5 spot that Delphos holds as you don't want to see Leipsic or McComb in the first round.

[davidson33]

calvert_alum, on 07 October 2012 - 03:22 AM, said:

Finally, Norwalk St. Paul stepped up and played like a team vying for a post-season spot. NSP played like the team of old last night in a thrashing of New London. New London is not that bad of a football team, and the Flyers just put it to them. Maybe these guys have awakened. St. Paul is now 7th in Reg 22 and right behind Tiffin Calvert. Calvert is now just points away from that all important #5 spot that Delphos holds as you don't want to see Leipsic or McComb in the first round.

Well, the first 5 spots are pretty much a given:

Granted, this is JMO-

1. Winner of Leipsic/McComb game. I think Leipsic.
2. Fremont St. Joe
3. Loser of Leipsic/McComb game. McComb IMO.
4. Ottawa Hills. Only have one loss left in Northwood. Will finish 7-3.
5. Arlington. will finish 7-3.
6-8. Guess work. But a jumble of NSP, DSJ and Calvert.

Calvert-if your Senecas can find a way to beat FSJ this weekend, that are in, but they cant be considered favorties. Should beat Mohawk. Coin toss in Hopewell game.

NSP-Should win out and finish 7-3. Key word there is "should". Hard to read this years NSP team. Must be frustrating at times to Livengood.

DSJ-Hard to believe it, but decent chance they may actually finish 5-5 this year. Versailles and Minster will be very tough games that are a coin toss. New Bremen should be no problem. If they can beat 2 of 3, they are assured a spot.

Dark horses

Edon-though they would beat Ottawa Hills, but not so. Still, should wipe up the rest of their schedule in the TAAC which closes for Edon very weak. Biggest remaining challenge is Toledo Christian. 7-3.

Sandusky st. Mary's-in this weak region, don't know if 4 wins can get them in, but they just might pull it off. Have at least 2 coin flip games against Edison and Margaretta left.

Calvertalum, I know you mentioned Monroeville as your dark horse, but sorry, they have no shot. Same goes for on the fence teams like Ayersville, Arcadia, convoy Crestview, Toledo Christian and pandora Gilboa. Their schedules are too tough coming in.

Basically, if any of the 3 teams in the 6-8 spots can win 2 out of 3 remaining games, it is all over and Edon and SSM will be on the outside looking in.

Edon in particular, needs to play a tougher non-league schedule if they want to get in playing within the TAAC.

[calvert_alum]

davidson33, on 07 October 2012 - 11:13 AM, said:

Well, the first 5 spots are pretty much a given:

Granted, this is JMO-

1. Winner of Leipsic/McComb game. I think Leipsic.
2. Fremont St. Joe
3. Loser of Leipsic/McComb game. McComb IMO.
4. Ottawa Hills. Only have one loss left in Northwood. Will finish 7-3.
5. Arlington. will finish 7-3.
6-8. Guess work. But a jumble of NSP, DSJ and Calvert.

Calvert-if your Senecas can find a way to beat FSJ this weekend, that are in, but they cant be considered favorties. Should beat Mohawk. Coin toss in Hopewell game.

NSP-Should win out and finish 7-3. Key word there is "should". Hard to read this years NSP team. Must be frustrating at times to Livengood.

DSJ-Hard to believe it, but decent chance they may actually finish 5-5 this year. Versailles and Minster will be very tough games that are a coin toss. New Bremen should be no problem. If they can beat 2 of 3, they are assured a spot.

Dark horses

Edon-though they would beat Ottawa Hills, but not so. Still, should wipe up the rest of their schedule in the TAAC which closes for Edon very weak. Biggest remaining challenge is Toledo Christian. 7-3.

Sandusky st. Mary's-in this weak region, don't know if 4 wins can get them in, but they just might pull it off. Have at least 2 coin flip games against Edison and Margaretta left.

Calvertalum, I know you mentioned Monroeville as your dark horse, but sorry, they have no shot. Same goes for on the fence teams like Ayersville, Arcadia, convoy Crestview, Toledo Christian and pandora Gilboa. Their schedules are too tough coming in.

Basically, if any of the 3 teams in the 6-8 spots can win 2 out of 3 remaining games, it is all over and Edon and SSM will be on the outside looking in.

Edon in particular, needs to play a tougher non-league schedule if they want to get in playing within the TAAC.

I do believe you just insulted my intelligence by saying Sandusky St. Mary's has a better chance than Monroeville ..those guys will get walloped by Edison and Oak Harbor.

Anyways, I do believe this region will start to take shape here in the next few weeks. Norwalk St. Paul should be victorious in these next two games and if Tiffin Calvert can uproot Fremont St Joe at home, then things will start to become set in stone.

Edited by calvert_alum, 07 October 2012 - 11:44 AM.

[calvert_alum]

These numbers were updated after Friday night's games. So, this wouldn't include Norwalk St. Paul

Region 22 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 9.10)
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Leipsic 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Mc Comb 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Arlington 97% (5W-41% 6W-86% 7W-99% )
Ottawa Hills (Toledo) 91% (6W-46% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Delphos St John's 89% (4W-16% 5W-63% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
Calvert (Tiffin) 83% (4W-15% 5W-77% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
St Paul (Norwalk) 62% (4W-1% 5W-20% 6W-85% 7W-100% )
Edon 26% (6W-3% 7W-51% )
Ayersville (Defiance) 20% (5W-2% 6W-68% 7W-100% )
Crestview (Convoy) 18% (4W-1% 5W-19% 6W-99% )
Toledo Christian (Toledo) 5% (5W-1% 6W-93% )
Pandora-Gilboa (Pandora) 4% (5W-1% 6W-61% 7W-100% )
Monroeville 2% (4W-1% 5W-39% )

[Buckshot]

BlueJay, on 06 October 2012 - 09:24 AM, said:

DSJ has a very good chance of getting in if they go 5-5.

St Johns will get to host at 6-4.

I'll go out on a limb;
1. winner Leip/McComb
2. St joe's at 9-1
3. Loser of Leip/McC. Leip could end up 8-2 and still get 3rd
4 St Johns at 6-4
5. St. Paul at 7-3
6.Arlington at 7-3
7. Ottawa Hills at 7-3
8 Calvert at 5-5

If St paul goes to 6-4 they drop to 8th. Imo this is the field

[davidson33]

Nah, didn't insult your intelligence at all. And I didn't mention Oak Harbor at all. I agree SSM will lose that game. Like is said above, they have a coin flip chance to win the Edison and Margaretta game. Which I believe is 100% true. They aren't great by any measure, but that SSM bunch is scrappy.

But, as you are a Calvert alum, you should be hoping for losses by Edon and SSM to lock up the spot for your Senecas. I just don't see any team that will beat Edon on that weak schedule they have coming in. If Calvert loses to both FSJ and H-L coming in, it will get tight. They need to win one of those to get some breathing room.

Edited by davidson33, 07 October 2012 - 01:55 PM.

[BlueJay]

Buckshot, on 07 October 2012 - 01:52 PM, said:

St Johns will get to host at 6-4.

I'll go out on a limb;
1. winner Leip/McComb
2. St joe's at 9-1
3. Loser of Leip/McC. Leip could end up 8-2 and still get 3rd
4 St Johns at 6-4
5. St. Paul at 7-3
6.Arlington at 7-3
7. Ottawa Hills at 7-3
8 Calvert at 5-5

If St paul goes to 6-4 they drop to 8th. Imo this is the field

I would LOVE that. I would love for NSP to take a trip to Delphos

[theterminator]

Even though McComb and Leipsic's records look the best. I think DSJ and Arlington cannot be looked over. The week 10 matchup between McComb and Leipsic will decide between them, also.

[BGR_80]

Even though McComb and Leipsic's records look the best. I think DSJ and Arlington cannot be looked over. The week 10 matchup between McComb and Leipsic will decide between them, also.

If memory serves me right, McComb just put a pretty good beat down on the Red Devils. I agree, no one in this region can overlook DSJ but no concerns about the Devils!

[BlueJay]

Arlington won't get past round 1. Take it to the bank

[jeffcat-bucki]

I hope Crestview can upset Spencer. Their backup QB has been improving quite a bit with more reps and getting better every week. With him, plus a good field goal kicker, Oliver, and a nice sized line, they could easy make noise in an otherwise weak region...although I will give the region a lot more credit now, as the quality of programs entering are much more respectable.

[quasimodo63]

St. Paul would definetly have their hands full with Delphos if they met this year. St. Paul should be able to use this year to build for the future though. They start a freshman, 4 sophomores, and 4 juniors on defense. Offense is similar. They are only graduating 7 seniors, and have talented classes coming up