67 replies to this topic

[Mosheen]

Archbold (12-4)

Historical Rating - 9.3
Strength of Schedule - 12.425
Overall Rating - 43.802

Delta (10-4)

Historical Rating - .933
Strength of Schedule - 4.64
Overall Rating - 31.324

Predicted Outcome - Archbold wins 53-47

[Mosheen]

Leipsic vs. Ottawa-Glandorf I'll post tomorrow night after the Leipsic vs. Arlington game

[Mosheen]

#4 Defiance vs #124 Lima Shawnee

Defiance overall rating - 59.379 to Shawnee's - 12.987

Predicted outcome - Defiance wins 75-52

Edited by Mosheen, 09 February 2012 - 07:49 PM.

[Mosheen]

Let's talk about Dunbar vs. Taft first

Taft is moving up to D2, so what do you think the competitive difference may be?

[slice slice baby]

I hope everyone appreciated mo's FeBREWary title!!

[Mosheen]

Predicted outcome - Defiance 75-52 actual Defiance wins 61-38
Predicted outcome - Kalida 51-47 actual Kalida 61-55
Predicted outcome - Tiffin Calvert 62-60 actual New Reigel wins 60-50
Predicted outcome - Leipsic 59-52 actual Arlington wins 59-47
Predicted outcome - Columbus Grove 65-59 actual Grove wins 56-50
Predicted outcome - Archbold 53-47 actual Archbold wins 59-46

Edited by Mosheen, 11 February 2012 - 02:11 PM.

[Mosheen]

Defiance (16-0)

Historical - 11.467
Strength - 20.57
Overall - 62.626

Lima Senior (3-13)

Historical - .400
Strength - 24.96
Overall - 18.253

Predicted Outcome - Defiance 75-57

[Mosheen]

Ottawa-Glandorf (11-5)

Historical - 19.797
Strength - 22.255
Overall - 47.521

Leipsic (13-2)

Historical - 0.900
Strength - 6.56
Overall - 39.367

Predicted Outcome - OG wins 63-55

[Hound Dog]

I know it's just a play on numbers....but how do you explain your miss on Leipsic/Arlington?

[Mosheen]

Hound Dog,

I have no explanation for Leipsic / Arlington game. What it kinda did was support the stats that Columbus Grove is as good as they might seem to be in D4.

Edited by Mosheen, 11 February 2012 - 08:01 AM.

[DonnyDonuts]

does your miss on New Riegel mean that you may have them slightly under valued?

[bluestreaksfever]

The Archbold/Delta game was actually 59-46.

Edited by bluestreaksfever, 11 February 2012 - 10:18 AM.

[Mosheen]

DonnyDonuts,

Yes, after I adjust strength of schedule New Reigel will improve slightly but will have most of their strength determined by Conference play and Anthony Wayne.

[kaizen]

its good you missed a couple of games. I was to the point of not even wanting to go to any games at all. Its like you know the outcome of a movie, why see it at all.

[Mosheen]

Changes in strength of schedule

Division 1

Mentor - 29.45 to 38.47
Northland - 47.21 to 47.98
LaSalle - 38.9 to 42.97
Moeller - 35.33 to 36.24
Olentangy Liberty - 36.24 to 37.34

[Mosheen]

Changes in strength of schedule

Division 4

Jackson Center - 2.865 to 2.53
Columbus Grove - 11.87 to 9.01
Leipsic - 6.59 to 4.03
Arlington - 4.17 to 4.17
New Reigel - 1.23 to 1.56
Calvert - 1.23 to 1.12

[Mosheen]

Changes in strength of schedule

Division 2

Dunbar to 24.98
Taft to 35.165
Defiance - 20.57 to 23.65
Elida - 6.635 to 11.145
Thurgood Marshall - 24.95 to 28.155

[Mosheen]

Changes in strength of schedule

Division 3

LCC - 16.17 to 16.28
OG - 22.25 to 26.11
Archbold - 12.42 to 16.16
Tinora - 1.0 to 2.86
Liberty Benton - 3.46 to 4.56