169 replies to this topic

[Buckshot]

PH playoff scenario got a huge break. It's been reported in the local papers that Wauseon.'s QB went down with a dislocated/separated shoulder and out for the season.

[Bluetiger76]

Region 20 Jefferson (Delphos) (8-0, D6 R20) - Clinched playoff berth, seed #7 or better, controls own destiny for a home game
Tinora (Defiance) (7-1, D6 R20) - Clinched playoff berth, seed #7 or better, controls own destiny for a home game
Wayne Trace (Haviland) (7-1, D6 R20) - Clinched playoff berth, needs help for a home game
Ada (6-2, D6 R20) - Controls own destiny for a playoff berth and for a home game
Patrick Henry (Hamler) (6-2, D6 R20) - Controls own destiny for a playoff berth
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (6-2, D6 R20) - Controls own destiny for a playoff berth
Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) (7-1, D6 R20) - Controls own destiny for a playoff berth
Crestview (Convoy) (6-2, D6 R20) - Controls own destiny for a playoff berth
Ayersville (Defiance) (6-2, D6 R20) - Needs a little help for a playoff berth
Northwood (6-2, D6 R20) - Needs help for a playoff berth
Carey (5-3, D6 R20) - Needs help for a playoff berth
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) (5-3, D6 R20) - Needs help for a playoff berth
Woodmore (Elmore) (5-3, D6 R20) - Needs a miracle for a playoff berth
Wynford (Bucyrus) (4-4, D6 R20) - Needs a miracle for a playoff berth
Spencerville (4-4, D6 R20) - Needs a miracle for a playoff berth
Bluffton (4-4, D6 R20) - Eliminated from playoff contention
Gibsonburg (4-4, D6 R20) - Eliminated from playoff contention
Seneca East (Attica) (4-4, D6 R20) - Eliminated from playoff contention
Van Buren (4-4, D6 R20) - Eliminated from playoff contention
Lakota (Kansas) (3-5, D6 R20) - Eliminated from playoff contention
Fairview (Sherwood) (3-5, D6 R20) - Eliminated from playoff contention
Allen East (Harrod) (3-5, D6 R20) - Eliminated from playoff contention
Elmwood (Bloomdale) (1-7, D6 R20) - Eliminated from playoff contention
Montpelier (1-7, D6 R20) - Eliminated from playoff contention
Riverdale (Mt. Blanchard) (1-7, D6 R20) - Eliminated from playoff contention
Evergreen (Metamora) (0-8, D6 R20) - Eliminated from playoff contention

[several]

PH is 17.444 if they win out and at a minimum 12.9444 if they lose to Wauseon. If Archbold beats Wauseon but PH loses to Wauseon, PH picks up .5555 to their total to make it 13.50.

For some teams it is pretty easy. Jefferson, Tinora, LCC, Wayne Trace and Crestview are in. If Crawford wins, they are in. Lose and they are in unless PH, Ada and Ayersville all win their big games.
PH wins they are in, lose and they have 50/50 chance. Ada must win one of their last two to get in. Ayersville must beat Tinora to be in. Northwood and Carey are both on the fringe. I have Northwood at 13.75 and Carey at 13.15 if they win out. Neither can control their own destiny as they need PH, Ada and Ayersville to lose to have a chance. Hopewell Loudin is in if they can win both their their last two games against Carey and Calvert. These are the only 12 teams that still have a chance to make the playoffs. Here are my projections.

1.Jefferson 21.8 win out
2. Tinora 20.05 win out
3. PH 17.444 win out (lose 12.944 or 13.50)
4. LCC 17.40 win out (lose Ada 14.55)
5. WT 17.15 win out
6. Crestview 16.45 win out
7. Crawford 14.50 lose to upper (win 17.50)
8. Northwood 13.75 win out
9. Carey 13.15 win out
10. Wynford 11.844 win out
11. Ada 11.50 lose to DJ and LCC (win LCC 13.85)
12. Ayersville 11.20 lose to Tinora (win 14.60)

[whatdoiknow]

I would run the numbers for jefferson with a loss to ada. It will happen, no way the bulldogs miss the playoffs.

[Osu4me]

whatdoiknow, on 20 October 2013 - 12:33 PM, said:

I would run the numbers for jefferson with a loss to ada. It will happen, no way the bulldogs miss the playoffs.

What makes you think Ada will beat Jefferson?

[flounder]

Osu4me, on 20 October 2013 - 07:45 PM, said:

What makes you think Ada will beat Jefferson?

4me......

He still thinks Fell is coaching Ada!!!!!

[jeffcat-bucki]

Osu4me, on 20 October 2013 - 07:45 PM, said:

What makes you think Ada will beat Jefferson?

Ego.

[jeffcat-bucki]

So, what's the deal with Tinora's opponent Hillsdale? Hillsdale, as of right now, is playing 9 games this season, but they have an open date next week and have a note of (Pre-district MHSAA playoffs)....forgive me for not understanding the Michigan system. Assuming they are NOT playing a game that week, Tinora should still have a L2 divisor of 99 right? I fully expect Hillsdale to win their next(last) game this week after looking at their opponents.

[oberhaus]

Michigan only has a 9 game season. The following week is playoffs assuming they make it. So their week 10 opponent is not decided yet. BUT it will be the same division as Hillsdale as normal for out of state teams.

[jeffcat-bucki]

oberhaus, on 21 October 2013 - 05:45 AM, said:

Michigan only has a 9 game season. The following week is playoffs assuming they make it. So their week 10 opponent is not decided yet. BUT it will be the same division as Hillsdale as normal for out of state teams.

So their playoff game is going to count for 2nd level points for Tinora and keep their divisor at 100?

[oberhaus]

Yes. Same happened for PH in 2010 playing a Michigan team week 1. They first playoff game counted. Check out Joe's site.

[jeffcat-bucki]

oberhaus, on 21 October 2013 - 12:27 PM, said:

Yes. Same happened for PH in 2010 playing a Michigan team week 1. They first playoff game counted. Check out Joe's site.

Ok, thanks.

[Buckshot]

Same goes for Leipsic this year. Edinburgh's 10th game is part of the Indiana playoff system and will count towards 2nd level points.

[Bluetiger76]

oberhaus, on 21 October 2013 - 05:45 AM, said:

Michigan only has a 9 game season. The following week is playoffs assuming they make it. So their week 10 opponent is not decided yet. BUT it will be the same division as Hillsdale as normal for out of state teams.

Michigan high schools automatically qualify for the Michigan High School Athletic Association (MHSAA) football playoffs by winning a minimum of 6 games when playing a 9 game schedule or a minimum of 5 games when playing an 8 game schedule. - Per MHSAA

[oberhaus]

Bluetiger76, on 21 October 2013 - 06:29 PM, said:

Michigan high schools automatically qualify for the Michigan High School Athletic Association (MHSAA) football playoffs by winning a minimum of 6 games when playing a 9 game schedule or a minimum of 5 games when playing an 8 game schedule. - Per MHSAA

Yes...I know. Thats why I said assuming they make it as in win 6 games. They have a 9 week regular season but as in ohio, some teams can't fill a full schedule all the time.

[Bluetiger76]

oberhaus, on 21 October 2013 - 07:33 PM, said:

Yes...I know. Thats why I said assuming they make it as in win 6 games. They have a 9 week regular season but as in ohio, some teams can't fill a full schedule all the time.

I would assume you knew, but it wasn't in your post.

Edited by Bluetiger76, 21 October 2013 - 08:36 PM.

[several]

Just reworked the numbers. Double checked my spreadsheet with Joe Eitel and his max and mins. There are so many different possibilities for who can make the playoffs and who can host. There are so many games that effect region 20 these last two weeks where they could be called toss ups. I can't remember so many different combinations of teams that could make it. The NWC and MAL are right in the middle of it all.

[jeffcat-bucki]

several, on 22 October 2013 - 09:27 PM, said:

Just reworked the numbers. Double checked my spreadsheet with Joe Eitel and his max and mins. There are so many different possibilities for who can make the playoffs and who can host. There are so many games that effect region 20 these last two weeks where they could be called toss ups. I can't remember so many different combinations of teams that could make it. The NWC and MAL are right in the middle of it all.

Personally, I think the NWC is a little easier outside of Ada/LCC. The MAL is a complete crapshoot though. GMC is easy. I will say that I see some games that I am putting down as easy wins, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if some of these teams pull it out of their arses and get a W, but hey, that's football.

[jeffcat-bucki]

My prediction. Numerous people are battling for 8th, so I'm not going to waste my time guessing the MAL matchups, because they are entirely toss ups in my eyes. I'll give it a go after this week.

1:Jefferson: 21.8500 win out
2:Tinora: 20.9500 win out
3:PH: 17.4999 win out
4:Wayne Trace: 17.1500 win out
5:LCC: 17.0500 win out
6:Crestview: 16.5000 win out
7:Crawford:14.1500 lose to Upper
8:Northwood: 13.7500 win out

Outside of DJ/Northwood, the rest of those games are VERY interesting matchups...hell knowing DJ, that game might even be interesting and they would have to redeem themselves from the meltdown against Northwood a few years ago in the season opener.

Edited by jeffcat-bucki, 23 October 2013 - 12:19 AM.

[BIG RED -TE]

Are or will the points be different if archbold would beat Wauseon then PH beats them in week 10 ? I know 2nd level points are in there some how I just have no clue on this . Thanks