281 replies to this topic

[Bobby]

lefty, on 16 September 2013 - 02:15 PM, said:

Ah. I think the 2nd level will be quite a bit better than a bye or Hardin Northern.

Worse than a bye. Winning a game against a weak opponent gets you more computer points if they win a game or two but your divisor is also higher. A bye is usually more beneficial for computer points purposes than a win over a team that goes 1-9 or 0-10.

[bvcgrad]

If Arlington has no chance to win this region, who is the favoriye Lefty ?

[calvert_alum]

Division 7, Region 24 (After 4 Weeks)

1. Arlington (4-0) 6.1750 - Should have no problem this week against Van Buren
2. Fremont SJCC (3-1) 4.7250 - Travel to a Carey team this week that always plays tough in the league. Having a down year though in 13'
3. Leipsic (3-1) 4.6750 - Makes a long trip to Edinburgh IN. this week, thanks to Hardin Northern lol.
4. McComb (3-1) 4.2500 - Will travel to Cory-Rawson, this one should be over after the 1st quarter.
5. North Baltimore (2-2) 3.0750 - League plays has begun, no more cupcake schedule. NB will slowly fade.
-. Pandora-Gilboa (3-1) 3.0750 - Should handle Vanlue pretty easily this week.
7. Toledo Christian (2-2) 2.9500 - Travels to Cardinal Stritch, which should be a victory for Christian.
8. Hicksville (2-2) 2.9250 - Hicksville has a shot, but I see them losing on the road to Tinora.

Outside Looking In
9. Holgate (2-2) 2.8000 - These guys will fade now that their schedule gets tougher.
10. Tiffin Calvert (1-3) 2.1000 - Seneca East will provide a tough test this week. They played right with (4-0) D.4 Upper Sandusky (L 28-27).

*DSJ is not pictured here, but they need a win this week against Anna, as they host Marion Local the following week.

Edited by calvert_alum, 22 September 2013 - 10:17 PM.

[Common Sense]

brunowball, on 14 September 2013 - 02:45 PM, said:

Van Buren is a lot better than you're giving them credit for. Their only losses are to 3-0 Leipsic and to 3-0 Lucasville Valley (who went 10-0 and made it to the 3rd Rd. of the playoffs in D5 last year). Both were competitive games.

That being said, I think Arlington wins handily, but it's not because Leipsic is down. Arlington is just a machine right now. They have one of those teams that has the offense to light up the scoreboard and the defense to blank you. I'm on the fence right now on how good I think Arlington will fare in D7. If they come out and handle Leipsic, McComb, Van Buren and Liberty Center they might be on par with the best in the state.

I thought VB was better too...until last Friday, they were up 6-0 and scored a very unimpressive 20-0 win over a poor Arcadia team. This region is really, really down this year.

[calvert_alum]

DSJ should get some good points the rest of the way thanks to a good win over Anna. I'm picking Mohawk for the upset over Hopewell-Loudon this week in our MAL Pick'Ems, if this happens look for Mohawk to make some noise in this region too. My Senecas lost another close won this week 34-28 to a good Seneca East team. Calvert turned the ball over 5 times compared to SE's 0, and that was the difference in the ballgame.


Here is Region 24 (Updated):

1. 5-0 Arlington 7.6500 18.5 39.5 - Arlington keeps taking care of business w. a win over McComb this wk.

2. 4-1 Leipsic 6.2500 15.0 32.5 - Leipsic rolls over Aracadia

3. 3-2 Fremont St. Joseph Central Catholic 4.5000 11.5 22.0 - They got poured on last wk. by Carey, but gets back on track w. Lakota this week.

4. 4-1 McComb 4.3000 16.5 10.0 - Loses against a very good Arlington team.

5. 3-2 Edon 3.5000 10.5 14.0 - Edon takes care of OH. This team should make the playoffs in this region.

6. 4-1 Pandora-Gilboa 3.2500 14.0 4.5 - No second level pts, might have trouble w. Van Buren this week. *Upset Alert*

7. 3-2 Toledo Christian 3.2000 12.5 7.0 - Shld beat Danbury, but won't get much second level help.

8. 2-3 Hicksville 2.9000 7.5 14.0 - Has a couple of descent opponents left on the schedule, however, should they will roll this wk against Antwerp.

Outside Looking In:

9. 2-3 Delphos St. John's 2.7000 8.0 11.0 - Anna will really help carry this team now that DSJ picked-up a win over them. However, ML will roll this week against the Blue Jays.

-. 2-3 North Baltimore 2.7000 7.5 12.0 - These guys are done for, as they've hit the meat and potatoes of the schedule.

11. 2-3 Holgate 2.4500 7.0 10.5 - Same goes for Holgate as NB. DONE!

12. 1-4 Tiffin Calvert 1.9000 4.0 11.0 - Plenty of games left that could get the Seneca a great number of pts. However, if they don't eliminate TO's it won't matter. Tough one at home this Saturday against Carey.

13. 1-4 Lima Perry 1.8000 3.5 11.0 - Perry picked up a win last week against a 3-2 Upper Scioto Valley team that should help them down the road. They should win by a few scores this week against Waynesfield-Goshen.

14. 1-4 Mohawk 1.4500 3.5 7.0 - Mohawk has probably played the toughest schedule so far out of anyone in this region. They were in the Carey game until the 4th and last week they put it all together against NB. I'm picking them in an upset over 4-1 Hopewell-Loudon this week.

Edited by calvert_alum, 30 September 2013 - 12:32 PM.

[tunnelvision]

Perry will go 5-5, and their opponents will have about 16-17 wins for them. I don't know where that will put them, but I imagine in this region, they could get in for the first time ever. A lot depends on how many 2nd level points P-G and Toledo Christian get. Also,how Calvert finishes

[Bluetiger76]

After week 5:

Only 7 teams over .500 (three of them at 3-2)

Only 1 team is undefeated

20 teams below .500

[daaa browns]

Bluetiger76, on 30 September 2013 - 05:49 PM, said:

After week 5:

Only 7 teams over .500 (three of them at 3-2)

Only 1 team is undefeated

20 teams below .500

Weak region this year...this is why all of the Tinora and WT communities were hoping to be low enough on the boy count this year...

[Bluetiger76]

daaa browns, on 30 September 2013 - 05:55 PM, said:

Weak region this year...this is why all of the Tinora and WT communities were hoping to be low enough on the boy count this year...

.......,you may be right, good point

[daaa browns]

Bluetiger76, on 30 September 2013 - 05:58 PM, said:

.......,you may be right, good point

Put it in this perspective..Tinora's only loss was to LC in THREE ot's...and they just bumped up from 8th to 5th in the region 20...

WT just beat Holgate last week 80-0 and they were tied for 9th in region 24 before that game....

And Arlington beat the only team in the region that would give them any look and that was Leipsic, and the score wasn't very close...Computer points wise, Tinora and WT would be 1st and 3rd easily...

Edited by daaa browns, 30 September 2013 - 06:09 PM.

[Bluetiger76]

daaa browns, on 30 September 2013 - 06:08 PM, said:

Put it in this perspective..Tinora's only loss was to LC in THREE ot's...and they just bumped up from 8th to 5th in the region...

WT just beat Holgate last week 80-0 and they were tied for 9th in that same region before that game....

And Arlington beat the only team in the region that would give them any look and that was Leipsic, and the score wasn't very close...Computer points wise, Tinora and WT would be 1st and 3rd easily...

Yep

[falconfan84]

Common Sense, on 22 September 2013 - 10:30 PM, said:

This region is really, really down this year.

This is also the best year ever for this region, since this region has never existed before...

The added division just means that the whole playoff system just got watered down. The days of having undefeated teams not making the playoffs are over.

[DirtyPBear76]

falconfan84, on 30 September 2013 - 09:31 PM, said:

This is also the best year ever for this region, since this region has never existed before...

The added division just means that the whole playoff system just got watered down. The days of having undefeated teams not making the playoffs are over.

Unless you are in the higher divisions. I see there being a couple that could fall victim to this.

[falconfan84]

DirtyPBear76, on 30 September 2013 - 09:38 PM, said:

Unless you are in the higher divisions. I see there being a couple that could fall victim to this.

True...more of a possibility in higher divisions...but, with 32 more teams making the playoffs, that will become less likely.

[Coach_B]

Common Sense, on 22 September 2013 - 10:30 PM, said:

I thought VB was better too...until last Friday, they were up 6-0 and scored a very unimpressive 20-0 win over a poor Arcadia team. This region is really, really down this year.

They aren;t bad. Middle of the pack BVC team. They probably could have knocked off Leipsic if they didn't turn the ball over six times. But you know what they say if and buts and candies and nuts... They have also been decimated by injuries the last couple of weeks. I like their coach, he's changing things there slowly,

[hunt4em]

I know Adolf is out, what other impact players are out? or is that just an excuse, everyone has kids banged up this time of year.

[Buckshot]

Coach_B, on 01 October 2013 - 11:18 AM, said:

They aren;t bad. Middle of the pack BVC team. They probably could have knocked off Leipsic if they didn't turn the ball over six times. But you know what they say if and buts and candies and nuts... They have also been decimated by injuries the last couple of weeks. I like their coach, he's changing things there slowly,

two interceptions and two lost fumbles add up to four, not six

[calvert_alum]

Region 24 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 7.55)
Arlington 100%
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 99% (4W-76% 5W-98% 6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Leipsic 99% (5W-82% 6W-98% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Mc Comb 96% (5W-20% 6W-89% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Edon 81% (5W-5% 6W-46% 7W-97% 8W-100% )
Hicksville 80% (4W-24% 5W-71% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Pandora-Gilboa (Pandora) 66% (5W-6% 6W-52% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Delphos St John's 60% (4W-8% 5W-63% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Toledo Christian (Toledo) 46% (4W-1% 5W-13% 6W-81% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Perry (Lima) 28% (4W-14% 5W-61% 6W-100% )
Calvert (Tiffin) 22% (4W-48% 5W-99% 6W-100% )
Mohawk (Sycamore) 10% (4W-53% 5W-98% 6W-100% )
Ottawa Hills (Toledo) 8% (4W-3% 5W-83% 6W-100% )
North Baltimore 2% (4W-6% 5W-69% )

Source: http://www.fantastic...Ohio_Berths.php

[calvert_alum]

Here is what I project:

Arlington, SJCC, Leipsic, McComb are all locks.

Edon will get 6 for sure wins and in order to be a lock they might need 7. They would have to beat either Gibsonburg or Toledo Christian to get in. So, I see the Bombers getting in. That's five

Hicksville will likely need 6 wins to get in. This might be a hard task, but is very feasible. They will get to at least 5 wins with W's over Antwerp, Holgate and Edgerton. But, will need a win over (4-1) Ayersville or (5-0) Wayne Trace. Ayersville isn't as good as there record shows. So, I see Hicksville getting in.

Pandora-Gilboa- Their biggest match-up will be this weekend against Van Buren. PG needs 7 wins to be a lock and will need 6 to sniff the playoffs. If they can beat Van Buren this weekend they will be in the drivers seat. That win against JFK last weekend is bigger than a lot of people think. JFK is a good football team, who just can't close out games. They've been in some tight contests. I think PG gets in.

Delphos St. John's- I haven't been able to watch any MAC football this year, but DSJ should get in if they can reach 5 wins. They will lose this week to Marion Local, which means they will need to go 3-1 to finish the year. They will get wins over Fort Recovery and New Bremen for sure. It's going to come down to beating either Minster or Versailles. Versailles, record doesn't indicate the good football team they have. However, I see DSJ beating one of those two and getting in with 5 wins.

So, as of today here are the teams that I believe will make the top 8.

1. Arlington
2. SJCC
3. Leipsic
4. McComb
5. Edon
6. Hicksville
7. PG
8. DSJ

I believe Calvert, Perry and Mohawk will contend for the final couple of spots. Calvert must get a win this Saturday against Carey if they want a shot at this.

Edited by calvert_alum, 02 October 2013 - 01:45 PM.

[Bluetiger76]

calvert_alum, on 02 October 2013 - 01:30 PM, said:

I believe Calvert, Perry and Mohawk will contend for the final couple of spots. Calvert must get a win this Saturday against Carey if they want a shot at this.

Isn't Calvert 1-4?