166 replies to this topic

[fightingpanther]

jeffcat-bucki, on 05 October 2012 - 11:24 PM, said:

I ran a couple rough drafts of hypotheticals, although they may need revised tomorrow. I haven't done all the teams. Seneca East, Loudon, Archbold, Tinora, and Wayne Trace need ran yet.

Liberty Benton:
Loss to Leipsic(8-2): 9.9 pts
Win vs. Leipsic(9-1): 13.5 pts

Delphos Jefferson:
Win vs. Spencer and Ada(8-2): 14.0 pts
Anything 7-3 eliminates them barring disaster everywhere else.

Spencer:
Win out(8-2): 12.75 pts

Carey:
Loss to Loudon(7-3): 12.3 pts(loss to Seneca East would be less severe)
Win out(8-2): 14.95 pts

Columbia Station:
Loss to Lorain Clearview(8-2): 13.3 pts
Win out: They are in, so I don't care.

I'll work on some others when I get the chance. It's a PITA when you are playing mental pick ems when running hypotheticals. These point totals can swing drastically on just a few upsets. Spencer's point total dropped overnight just based on Lehman losing to Fairbanks which cost Spencer 4.0 2nd level points(or 0.4 points total). Also, Toledo Scott should pick up 5.5 pts for Carey when they beat Woodward(I already factored that into their total), but I have them losing to Waite. MAL games at the end of the year are very interesting and can REALLY shake things up....same for NWC. The Leipsic/McComb game could be big for Liberty Benton if they beat Leipsic. It's going down to the wire.

Considering Liberty had 16.1 last year at 9-1 with only St. Joe winning 4 games and St. Joe will win 8 this year your total of 13.5 at 9-1 is way off. It would be closer to 17.6. With a loss to Leipsic and going 8-2 the total would be closer to 13.8.

[Corleone]

fightingpanther, on 06 October 2012 - 12:01 AM, said:

Considering Liberty had 16.1 last year at 9-1 with only St. Joe winning 4 games and St. Joe will win 8 this year your total of 13.5 at 9-1 is way off. It would be closer to 17.6. With a loss to Leipsic and going 8-2 the total would be closer to 13.8.

Jeffcats numbers seem low to me as well but I haven't figured it.

[Bluetiger76]

fightingpanther, on 06 October 2012 - 12:01 AM, said:

Considering Liberty had 16.1 last year at 9-1 with only St. Joe winning 4 games and St. Joe will win 8 this year your total of 13.5 at 9-1 is way off. It would be closer to 17.6. With a loss to Leipsic and going 8-2 the total would be closer to 13.8.

Thats right Panther....if LB lost to McComb last year, they would have been close to 12.95 with an 8-2 record. To your point if you add 4 more wins for St. Joe that would put LB around 14.35.

So at any rate 13.8 or 14.35 is better than 9.9.

[jeffcat-bucki]

fightingpanther, on 06 October 2012 - 12:01 AM, said:

Considering Liberty had 16.1 last year at 9-1 with only St. Joe winning 4 games and St. Joe will win 8 this year your total of 13.5 at 9-1 is way off. It would be closer to 17.6. With a loss to Leipsic and going 8-2 the total would be closer to 13.8.

You are correct. I have changed it. I figured their loss first and forgot I did. I project a 9-1 Liberty Benton having 18.45 pts if Leipsic beats McComb.

[jeffcat-bucki]

Revised:

Liberty Benton:
Loss to Leipsic(8-2): 15.2 pts
Win vs. Leipsic(9-1): 18.45 pts

Delphos Jefferson:
Win vs. Spencer and Ada(8-2): 17.8 pts.
Loss to Spencer(7-3): 14.7 pts.
Loss to Ada(7-3): 13.95 pts

Spencer:
Win out(8-2): 15.37 pts

Carey:
Loss to Loudon(7-3): 12.65 pts(loss to Seneca East would be less severe)
Win out(8-2): 15.3 pts

Columbia Station:
Loss to Lorain Clearview(8-2): 13.3 pts
Win to Clearview(9-1): 18.55 pts

Archbold:
Win vs. Wauseon, Losses to LC/PH(7-3): 12.65 pts
Loss to PH(8-2): 16.0 pts

Wayne Trace:
Loss to Tinora(8-2): 10.4 pts
Win vs. Tinora(9-1): 13.75 pts

Hopewell Loudon:
Win out(7-3): 13.6 pts

Tinora:
Win out(9-1): 14.29 pts

Possibility of making it in(3 spots available):
1: Carey(most likely wins out)
2: Liberty Benton(win or lose...probably still in)
3: Spencer(in danger of being jumped if 2nd level points play out wrong)
4: Tinora(could hop in if 2nd level points help them and hurt others)
5: Columbia Station(Easily in with win vs. Clearview, but is beginning to look less likely now)
6: Delphos Jefferson(Easily in with win vs. Ada/Spencer, but looking less likely)
7: Wayne Trace(Must beat Tinora and get help)
8: Archbold(Easily in if they beat PH and LC or even if they just beat LC....easier said than done)
9: Hopewell Loudon(outside looking in...winning out will be hard enough for them)

Remember, these are just hypotheticals, and I stress you calculate your own for accuracy if you can predict outcomes better than myself, plus I did this all by hand as opposed to Excel, so there could always be errors. These point totals can swing drastically on just a few upsets. Spencer's point total dropped overnight just based on Lehman losing to Fairbanks which cost Spencer 4.0 2nd level points(or 0.4 points total). Also, Toledo Scott should pick up 5.5 pts for Carey when they beat Woodward(I already factored that into their total), but I have them losing to Waite. MAL games at the end of the year are very interesting and can REALLY shake things up....same for NWC. The Leipsic/McComb game could be big for Liberty Benton if they beat Leipsic. It's going down to the wire.

Edited by jeffcat-bucki, 09 October 2012 - 12:55 AM.

[Bluetiger76]

Drew Pasteur's week 10 predictions based on week 7 info:

Region 18 Projections
1) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (10-0) 24.96
2) Northwood (10-0) 20.00
3) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (9-1) 19.95
4) Columbia (Columbia Station) (9-1) 19.20
5) Western Reserve (Collins) (9-1) 17.55
6) Liberty Center (8-2) 17.50
7) Liberty-Benton (Findlay) (8-2) 14.85
8) Tinora (Defiance) (9-1) 14.25

[jeffcat-bucki]

Bluetiger76, on 11 October 2012 - 07:20 AM, said:

Drew Pasteur's week 10 predictions based on week 7 info:

Region 18 Projections
1) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (10-0) 24.96
2) Northwood (10-0) 20.00
3) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (9-1) 19.95
4) Columbia (Columbia Station) (9-1) 19.20
5) Western Reserve (Collins) (9-1) 17.55
6) Liberty Center (8-2) 17.50
7) Liberty-Benton (Findlay) (8-2) 14.85
8) Tinora (Defiance) (9-1) 14.25

I'd put Carey or Spencer in before Tinora. I'm not quite sure how he gets a lower value or either of them considering he projects them both winning out.

[jeffcat-bucki]

A lot of things were shaken up after this week. I'll have to rework hypotheticals after some of the mess this week.
http://www.joeeitel....2region_18.html

[Bluetiger76]

jeffcat-bucki, on 12 October 2012 - 12:20 AM, said:

I'd put Carey or Spencer in before Tinora. I'm not quite sure how he gets a lower value or either of them considering he projects them both winning out.

Nice call on Tinora. They took one on the chin Friday night.

[several]

My projections:
1 LCC 25.465
2 NORTHWOOD 19.600
3 COLUMBIA 18.050
4 LC 17.000
5 ARCHBOLD 16.500
6 PATRICK HENRY 16.200
7 CAREY 15.700
8 WAYNE TRACE 15.525
9 SPENCERVILLE 15.423
10 W. RESERVE 15.200
11 LIBERTY BENTON 14.800
12 COLUMBUS GROVE 13.250
13 NEW LONDON 12.550
14 SENECA EAST 10.950
15 TINORA 10.500


This has a lot of variables in it. I have LC over Archbold. If LC lose, they are out. I have Leipsic over L-B. If L-B win, they are in. I have Carey winning over H-L and Seneca East. If they lose either, they are out. Columbia also has a tough game with Clearview in week 10. If they lose they are out and opens another spot.

So I see the following as in:
LCC
Northwood
Archbold
PH

Win and you're in
Columbia
LC
LB

Probably in if you win out
Carey

Hoping for teams to lose
WT
Spencerville
WR (loss to NL a killer)

A ton of secondary games can change some of the teams I have listed 7-10 but is my best guess.

Anyone else have their projections updated?

Edited by several, 13 October 2012 - 03:03 PM.

[jeffcat-bucki]

Who I see as in:
LCC
Northwood
Archbold
Patrick Henry

This leaves a vaguer scenario than I previously thought after some upsets, and it also leaves 4 available spots up for grabs...albeit more/different teams vying for the spots.

Columbia Station:
Win out(9-1): 18.8pts
Loss to Fairview(8-2): 17.0pts
Loss to Clearview(8-2): 15.05pts
Loss to both(7-3): 13.25pts

Liberty Center:
Win out(8-2): 17.4pts
Loss to Archbold(7-3): 13.65pts

Wayne Trace:
Win out(9-1): 15.3pts
Loss to Fairview(8-2): 12.65pts

Liberty Benton:
Win out(9-1): 18.45pts
Loss to Leipsic(8-2): 14.85pts

Western Reserve:
Win out(8-2): 14.85pts
Loss to Plymouth(7-3): 12.7pts

Carey:
Win out(8-2): 15.1pts
Loss to Seneca East(7-3): 12.15pts

Seneca East:
Win out(8-2): 13.8pts

Spencer:
Win out(8-2): 15.37pts

Delphos Jefferson:
Win out(8-2): 17.4pts
Loss to Ada(7-3): 13.55pts
Loss to Spencer(7-3): 14.3pts

These games can vary widely on the swing of just a game or two. As of now, I have these teams in:

Wayne Trace
Carey
Spencer
Columbia Station

At this point, it's just anybody's guess though, which is why I listed the hypotheticals for various outcomes, as you can see how much it has an effect.

Edited by jeffcat-bucki, 13 October 2012 - 03:26 PM.

[several]

I think LC is too high. I dont see Swanton beating Allen East.
You have Columbia much higher and I cannto see the differences easily. Teams from the East are hard to guage.
I have W-R a littler higher because I have Margaretta over SMCC.
I have Carey higher because I have Scott over winless Waite next week
I also have Seneca East higher and I think the difference is South Central over Mapleton

Other than those, we are really close. Only big difference is that I have projected LC over Archbold in a toss up game. Both these teams are playing well right now.

[jeffcat-bucki]

several, on 13 October 2012 - 04:09 PM, said:

I think LC is too high. I dont see Swanton beating Allen East.
You have Columbia much higher and I cannto see the differences easily. Teams from the East are hard to guage.
I have W-R a littler higher because I have Margaretta over SMCC.
I have Carey higher because I have Scott over winless Waite next week
I also have Seneca East higher and I think the difference is South Central over Mapleton

Other than those, we are really close. Only big difference is that I have projected LC over Archbold in a toss up game. Both these teams are playing well right now.

I could easily see all of those games happening too. There are a lot of toss ups and Columbia Station is a tough one to figure...Western Reserve as well.

[Maltese Falcon]

Wayne Trace's win over Tinora Friday night will definitely change many of the projections for this region.

[jeffcat-bucki]

Maltese Falcon, on 15 October 2012 - 10:41 AM, said:

Wayne Trace's win over Tinora Friday night will definitely change many of the projections for this region.

I think they will make it in, but unfortunately for them, it's still quite plausible that they won't make it in at 9-1.

[daaa browns]

Well with Wayne Trace returning 11 guys on defense and 9 on offense....u cud easily forsee another 10-0, 9-1 year..it will especially help with them scheduling Otsego and dropping Perry....

[jeffcat-bucki]

daaa browns, on 15 October 2012 - 08:50 PM, said:

Well with Wayne Trace returning 11 guys on defense and 9 on offense....u cud easily forsee another 10-0, 9-1 year..it will especially help with them scheduling Otsego and dropping Perry....

This is true, although I'm not sure what Tinora will have next year. Crestview will still be tough. I don't know the situation at Fairview and Hicksville, but they are usually competitive. WT is definitely improving though.

[NoSoup4U]

IMO five spots are filled.........

LCC
Northwood
Archbold
Patrick Henry
Wayne Trace

And if LB wins this week ........ make it six.........
And it Columbia Station wins this week ........ make it seven.......

Bubble teams need to root against these two..........

[oberhaus]

NoSoup4U, on 16 October 2012 - 07:23 AM, said:

IMO five spots are filled.........

LCC
Northwood
Archbold
Patrick Henry
Wayne Trace

And if LB wins this week ........ make it six.........
And it Columbia Station wins this week ........ make it seven.......

Bubble teams need to root against these two..........

PH still has 2 more games to play and if they play like they did against Archbold then nothing is in stone.

[daaa browns]

A lot of bubble temas r hoping for archbold to win if u think about it...if LC loses one more time they will b out...even if all 3 of their losses came to quality opponents...That's what sucks with this region for sure...TOO MUCH TALENT FOR TOO FEW SPOTS..