166 replies to this topic

[RWB 71]

It does seem like an oversight that Wayne Trace isn't listed.

Them losing to Crestview in one out of league contest and beating an 0-6 Paulding does not help on computer points any.

[NoSoup4U]

Updated with Wayne Trace.........

Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.87)
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 99% (7W-83% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Northwood 99% (8W-69% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 99% (7W-45% 8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Western Reserve (Collins) 94% (7W-38% 8W-92% 9W-99% )
Columbia (Columbia Station) 83% (6W-1% 7W-18% 8W-85% 9W-99% )
Liberty Center 77% (6W-1% 7W-49% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 70% (7W-1% 8W-55% 9W-99% )
Archbold 53% (6W-1% 7W-12% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Carey 31% (6W-1% 7W-8% 8W-88% )
Jefferson (Delphos) 30% (7W-1% 8W-74% 9W-100% )
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 22% (6W-1% 7W-28% 8W-97% )
Spencerville 20% (7W-1% 8W-78% )
Tinora (Defiance) 14% (8W-1% 9W-18% )
Seneca East (Attica) 2% (7W-1% 8W-44% )
New London 2% (7W-1% 8W-52% )
Wayne Trace 1%,(8W-1% 9W-76%)

[oberhaus]

So if WT beats Tinora then they have a pretty good shot at getting in finishing 9-1. But there is a strong likelihood thatno GMC teams make the playoffs.

[RWB 71]

Wow! Other than Hicksville who plays Coldwater and Archbold, it appears that the GMC needs to upgrade their out of conference schedules.

[NoSoup4U]

The conference needs to win their out of conference games........

[Mr Bearcat]

I like our chances IF we go 8-2!

[jeffcat-bucki]

oberhaus, on 04 October 2012 - 09:42 AM, said:

So if WT beats Tinora then they have a pretty good shot at getting in finishing 9-1. But there is a strong likelihood thatno GMC teams make the playoffs.

I wouldn't say good. It definitely helps, but even if they go 9-1, an 8-2 Spencer or DJ would be ahead of them based on some calculations I ran last week, and that's not even factoring in that an 8-2 Spencer or DJ MIGHT not even make it in. There is just a ton of football left to be played, especially between MAL, NWC, GMC teams, and how Archbold pans out vs. PH, LC, and Wauseon, and Liberty Benton with Leipsic.

Edited by jeffcat-bucki, 04 October 2012 - 11:04 AM.

[jeffcat-bucki]

Mr Bearcat, on 04 October 2012 - 10:55 AM, said:

I like our chances IF we go 8-2!

Spencer will have a shot at 8-2. It's just too early to tell right now. I would say it's a little under 50% simply because Liberty Benton is living off points from St. Joe even if they do lose to Leipsic. A 7 win Loudon team is still in contention, but I think an 8-2 Spencer team would jump them.

[PHDigger]

An interesting look at the non-league numbers from the GMC and comparing it to the TAAC (fairly similar league).


DIVISIONS WITHIN LEAGUE GMC--DIV 5=4, DIV 6=4
TAAC--DIV 5=1, DIV 6=7

NON-LEAGUE RECORD GMC=12-12
TAAC=11-13

SEASON TO DATE WINS BY NON-LEAGUE GMC=16/48=33%
TEAMS BEATEN TAAC=12/48=25%

NON LEAGUE GAME DIV BREAKDOWN GMC TAAC
DIV 2 0 2
DIV 3 1 0
DIV 4 1 3
DIV 5 6 6
DIV 6 16 13

AND A BIG ONE THAT DRIVES ME NUTS:

NON-LEAGUE GAMES WITH TEAMS THAT PLAY EACH GMC=11 OF 24 GAMES 46%
OTHER IN THE REGULAR SEASON TAAC=9 OF 24 GAMES 38%
ADDED NWOAL AS AN EXAMPLE NWOAL=2 OF 18 GAMES 11%

Out of the 3 non-league games, 4 GMC teams play 2 teams that play each other and 1 team that plays all three teams that play each other (Antwerp). The TAAC has 3 teams that play 2 teams that play each other and 1 team that plays all three teams that play each other (Edon). That is where the scheduling needs to be looked at by these schools and leaagues. Also to note, out of the 12 2nd level wins by the TAAC's non-league games, 9 of those came from Northwood's opponents. How much higher would that number (12) be if so many teams didn't play schools that play each other? Interesting. Hope that chart shows up ok.

Edited by PHDigger, 04 October 2012 - 11:29 AM.

[Buckshot]

NoSoup4U, on 04 October 2012 - 10:29 AM, said:

The conference needs to win their out of conference games........

Tinora's two out of conference wins Parkway currently 0-6 and USV at 0-6. Doubtful if either team gets a win

[jeffcat-bucki]

The way too in depth and mind warping stats I'm wrapping my head around for this week.

Teams I see as in and I'm not going to waste my time figuring where because they are in:
LCC
Northwood
Patrick Henry
Liberty Center
Columbia Station(although they MIGHT be upset, I doubt it from here on out, and even if they lose 1 more, they might still be in)
Western Reserve(they should win out)

Thus leaving 2 openings for a lot of teams:

Liberty Benton vs. Hardin Northern....obviously a win
1st level:
3.5 pts
2nd level:
4.0 pts if St Joe beats Loudon
3.5 pts if Arlington beats McComb
3.5 pts A crossover game with Vanlue/CR
(Arcadia won't beat Leipsic)

Archbold vs. Delta.....likely win
1st level:
4.5 pts
2nd level:
3.5 pts for Delta's win over Toledo Christian(if Archbold wins)
4.0 pts if Hicksville beats Wayne Trace
3.5 pts if Fairview beats Holgate
4.5 pts in Evergreen/Swanton crossover game
5.0 pts if Montpelier beats Wauseon(don't count on it)

Carey vs. Lakota....Carey probably wins
1st level:
4.0 pts if Carey wins
2nd level:
7.5 pts if Carey beats Lakota
4.0 pts if Bluffton beats Spencer
6.0 pts if Scott beats Bowsher
4.0 pts if Mohawk beats Seneca East(If Carey beats Seneca East later, they will receive 3.5 instead, so they want a Mohawk win)
3.5 pts if Calvert beats North Baltimore

Delphos Jefferson vs. Columbus Grove:
1st level:
4.0 pts if DJ wins
2nd level:
11.5 pts if DJ beats Grove
3.5 pts if Waynesfield Goshen beats Ridgemont
4.5 pts if Allen East beats Paulding(Paulding win over Allen East only nets 4.0 pts so DJ wants an Allen East win)
4.0 pts if Bluffton beats Spencer(Note: Carey's points with Bluffton above)
3.5 pts if Crestview beats Ada

Wayne Trace vs. Hicksville
1st level:
4.0 pts if WT wins
2nd level:
11.0 pts if WT beats Hicksville(Note: Archbold's points with Hicksville)
4.0 pts if Paulding beats Allen East(Note: Jefferson, Spencer's points with Paulding/AE game)
3.5 pts if Perry beats Riverside
3.5 pts from Ayersville/Edgerton game
4.0 pts if Holgate beats Fairview

Oberlin vs. Lorain Clearview
1st level:
4.5 pts with Oberlin win
2nd level:
20.0 pts if Oberlin beats Clearview(big game)
3.5 pts if Lutheran East beats Chalker
4.5 pts if Vermilion beats Elyria Catholic
4.5 pts if Richmond Heights beats Beachwood
5.0 pts if Brookside beats Buckeye
4.5 pts if Firelands beats Keystone

Tinora vs. Antwerp
1st level:
3.5 pts with Tinora win
2nd level:
3.5 pts if Parkway beats Minster
4.0 pts if USV beats Dayton Christian
3.5 pts if Edgerton beats Ayersville(Note: Wayne Trace has beaten both teams already)
4.0 pts if Hicksville beats Wayne Trace(Note: Overlap of Archbold previously beating Hicksville)
3.5 pts if Fairview beats Holgate(Note: Fairview win also benefits Archbold, so Holgate win is preferred if Tinora beats Holgate)
(Note: Also a Holgate win would net 4.0 pts instead of 3.5 pts if Tinora beats Holgate later)

Hopewell-Loudon vs. St. Joseph
1st level:
3.5 pts if Loudon wins
2nd level:
19.5 pts if Loudon beats St. Joes(big game)
4.5 pts if Elmwood beats Genoa
3.5 pts if North Baltimore beats Calvert
4.0 pts if Lakota beats Carey
4.0 pts if Mohawk beats Seneca East

Spencer vs. Bluffton
1st level:
4.0 pts with Spencer win
2nd level:
11.0 pts if Spencer beats Bluffton(Note: Spencer win hurts both Jefferson, if Spencer beats DJ, and hurts Archbold more)
3.5 pts if Perry beats Riverside(Note: Perry also plays DJ and Wayne Trace)
4.5 pts if Allen East beats Paulding(only 4.0 pts if Paulding beats Allen East)
4.0 pts if Columbus Grove beats Jefferson

Edited by jeffcat-bucki, 04 October 2012 - 01:25 PM.

[jeffcat-bucki]

PHDigger, on 04 October 2012 - 11:25 AM, said:

An interesting look at the non-league numbers from the GMC and comparing it to the TAAC (fairly similar league). DIVISIONS WITHIN LEAGUE GMC--DIV 5=4, DIV 6=4 TAAC--DIV 5=1, DIV 6=7 NON-LEAGUE RECORD GMC=12-12 TAAC=11-13 SEASON TO DATE WINS BY NON-LEAGUE GMC=16/48=33% TEAMS BEATEN TAAC=12/48=25% NON LEAGUE GAME DIV BREAKDOWN GMC TAAC DIV 2 0 2 DIV 3 1 0 DIV 4 1 3 DIV 5 6 6 DIV 6 16 13 AND A BIG ONE THAT DRIVES ME NUTS: NON-LEAGUE GAMES WITH TEAMS THAT PLAY EACH GMC=11 OF 24 GAMES 46% OTHER IN THE REGULAR SEASON TAAC=9 OF 24 GAMES 38% ADDED NWOAL AS AN EXAMPLE NWOAL=2 OF 18 GAMES 11% Out of the 3 non-league games, 4 GMC teams play 2 teams that play each other and 1 team that plays all three teams that play each other (Antwerp). The TAAC has 3 teams that play 2 teams that play each other and 1 team that plays all three teams that play each other (Edon). That is where the scheduling needs to be looked at by these schools and leaagues. Also to note, out of the 12 2nd level wins by the TAAC's non-league games, 9 of those came from Northwood's opponents. How much higher would that number (12) be if so many teams didn't play schools that play each other? Interesting. Hope that chart shows up ok.

Trust me...that drives me nuts as well. I really wish DJ didn't schedule Perry as you lose points from the 1 game vs. Waynesfield Goshen(also on DJ's schedule) and 2 other R18 teams play Perry as well. I would have much rather played Waynesfield and kept Northwood on the schedule as DJ would easily make it in at 8-2 if that was the case.

Edited by jeffcat-bucki, 04 October 2012 - 01:01 PM.

[jeffcat-bucki]

Buckshot, on 04 October 2012 - 12:15 PM, said:

Tinora's two out of conference wins Parkway currently 0-6 and USV at 0-6. Doubtful if either team gets a win

USV should be favored against Riverside(3.5pts is better than none). I would laugh if they beat Dayton Christian(6-0), but Dayton Christian is a pretty bad team even at 6-0.

Edited by jeffcat-bucki, 04 October 2012 - 01:24 PM.

[PHDigger]

Not to open a can of worms that is offensive to people, but that has been my arguement for many years about Archbold. They are "given" a nice spot in the NWOAL and they abuse it by scheduling 2 teams that play each other. Let them have week 9 open. Stupid. But catered to.

[jeffcat-bucki]

Perhaps, I'm just very rusty at calculations or I'm too tired, but has anybody ran the projections for Liberty Benton yet? I ran through some hypotheticals with how their season(and their opponents)would play out and I'm only coming up with 9.9 pts if they lose to Leipsic and still only 13.5 pts even if they beat Leipsic at 32.5 1st level points and 103 2nd level points. Either that, or I drastically missed a huge chunk of 2nd level points somewhere when I was tallying points as it doesn't even fall within Pasteur's Harbin range for them.

Edited by jeffcat-bucki, 05 October 2012 - 12:28 AM.

[jeffcat-bucki]

Based on what I am running, I have a 9-1 Liberty Benton beating out an 8-2 DJ or Spencer, BUT there are key games to factor in. I have that scenario with Leipsic beating McComb. If McComb beat Leipsic, Liberty Benton and Spencer could be tied at 13.15. Likewise, if DJ beat Ada and lost to Spencer, 8-2 DJ could jump both 9-1 LB and 8-2 Spencer if McComb beat Leipsic(but not if LCC beats Ada).

Either way, it's a REALLY tight race.

Keep in mind, this is just after running hypothetical results between a LOT of teams and it's still REALLY early to tell and things need to play out.

I'll run more hypotheticals with other teams tomorrow to get a better idea of where teams stand.

Edited by jeffcat-bucki, 05 October 2012 - 01:34 AM.

[ADog]

jeffcat-bucki, on 05 October 2012 - 12:27 AM, said:

Perhaps, I'm just very rusty at calculations or I'm too tired, but has anybody ran the projections for Liberty Benton yet? I ran through some hypotheticals with how their season(and their opponents)would play out and I'm only coming up with 9.9 pts if they lose to Leipsic and still only 13.5 pts even if they beat Leipsic at 32.5 1st level points and 103 2nd level points. Either that, or I drastically missed a huge chunk of 2nd level points somewhere when I was tallying points as it doesn't even fall within Pasteur's Harbin range for them.

What? you going both ways?....lol..sorry had to

[Stafford]

Just a few comments:
#1 - I believe Northwood played Columbus Grove in the 2003 playoffs and it was a pretty close score, something like 21-0? I think they are better than people think.
#2 - Delphos Jefferson will not make the playoffs. They may very well lose to Grove, and Spencerville.
#3 - I feel Leipsic beats Liberty-Benton, therefore eliminating them.
#4 - Spencerville finishes 8-2 and gets in, maybe even a #7 seed. They will be a tough out!

Just my opinion. If you disagree, I don't care because you will be wrong. (Ha ha) just kidding. what are the drink specials at Stinky's tonight after the game?

[jeffcat-bucki]

ADog, on 05 October 2012 - 02:54 PM, said:

What? you going both ways?....lol..sorry had to

Good one.

[jeffcat-bucki]

Stafford, on 05 October 2012 - 03:51 PM, said:

Just a few comments:
#1 - I believe Northwood played Columbus Grove in the 2003 playoffs and it was a pretty close score, something like 21-0? I think they are better than people think.
#2 - Delphos Jefferson will not make the playoffs. They may very well lose to Grove, and Spencerville.
#3 - I feel Leipsic beats Liberty-Benton, therefore eliminating them.
#4 - Spencerville finishes 8-2 and gets in, maybe even a #7 seed. They will be a tough out!

Just my opinion. If you disagree, I don't care because you will be wrong. (Ha ha) just kidding. what are the drink specials at Stinky's tonight after the game?

Grove beat them 27-0....and that was almost a decade ago.